Matchup analysis
Our model projects Georgia 34, South Carolina 24 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Georgia wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 58.2 combined points.
Georgia (No. 3) is 6-1 against the 58th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43 and allowing 15.9 points per game (+27.1 per game). South Carolina is 4-3 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.8 per game).
Georgia's elite offense (3rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over South Carolina's strong defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Georgia's projected points come from. South Carolina's strong offense (19th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) meets Georgia's elite defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Carolina puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia by 33 and South Carolina by 13 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Georgia is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Georgia vs South Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | Georgia | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.0#3 | 36.1#21 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.9#16 | 25.3#80 |
| Yards per play | 7.69#3 | 6.39#39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.65#10 | 5.24#42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 202.1#31 | 220.1#18 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.7#39 | 229.1#65 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.0#19 | 126.7#31 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 177.7#24 | 210.3#79 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#29 | 0.86#56 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#33 | 0.71#89 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#10 | 2.57#23 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#22 | 2.14#89 |
| Stat | Georgia | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#7 | +0.15#40 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#25 | +0.08#91 |
| Success rate | 53.4%#1 | 44.0%#58 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.4%#7 | 42.8%#89 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.3%#5 | 13.1%#60 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.7%#17 | 11.3%#62 |
| Havoc rate | 15.9%#25 | 13.5%#80 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#18 | 12.2%#44 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.22#2 | 4.86#15 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#59 | 4.73#130 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#40 | own 29#87 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#41 | own 29#74 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.6#122 | 70.3#20 |
| Stat | Georgia | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.19#13 | +0.25#4 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#15 | +0.06#79 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#23 | -0.01#51 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#37 | +0.16#107 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.8%#2 | 47.1%#40 |
| Passing success rate | 54.5%#4 | 41.3%#73 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#20 | 13.3%#14 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.4%#12 | 29.9%#92 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.2%#6 | 31.7%#100 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 56.9%#3 | 46.5%#30 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.0%#73 | 36.6%#48 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 83.3%#2 | 72.0%#24 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.9%#128 | 73.7%#130 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia schedule · South Carolina schedule · all Week 12 projections
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