Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisiana 32, Coastal Carolina 21 at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Louisiana wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.1 points and 52.9 combined points.
Coastal Carolina is 2-5 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.1 and allowing 25.9 points per game (+0.2 per game). Louisiana is 5-3 against the 110th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.1 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+8.8 per game).
Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack defense (83rd) should limit Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (113th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Louisiana's middle-of-the-pack offense (83rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.9 points against an average defense) against Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (117th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Coastal Carolina by 12 and Louisiana by 33 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisiana by about 8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana: stat comparison
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.1#89 | 30.1#60 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9#90 | 21.3#51 |
| Yards per play | 5.96#75 | 5.60#106 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.46#121 | 5.22#39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.4#69 | 195.1#38 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.9#83 | 180.3#116 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.9#130 | 137.1#46 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.6#71 | 183.9#32 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#112 | 0.75#54 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#62 | 1.13#40 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#64 | 1.50#108 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#121 | 1.50#49 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#108 | +0.07#80 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#111 | +0.00#47 |
| Success rate | 39.4%#116 | 42.3%#76 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#121 | 40.1%#60 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#64 | 11.1%#115 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#116 | 10.5%#36 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#73 | 13.8%#69 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#114 | 10.8%#23 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79#95 | 4.18#58 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.47#39 | 3.77#63 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#91 | own 33#11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#77 | own 27#31 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#87 | 67.0#62 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#90 | +0.12#46 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#111 | 0.00#108 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#115 | +0.03#64 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13#97 | -0.02#40 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.9%#84 | 42.8%#85 |
| Passing success rate | 37.1%#114 | 41.5%#71 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.3%#56 | 16.7%#66 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.0%#73 | 33.0%#43 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0%#71 | 28.4%#52 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.2%#98 | 40.6%#73 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.6%#126 | 38.2%#64 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#66 | 69.2%#37 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3%#51 | 68.8%#115 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Coastal Carolina schedule · Louisiana schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.