Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arizona 30, Kansas State 24 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Arizona wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 54.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Arizona (No. 22) is 6-1 against the 78th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+19.4 per game). Kansas State is 4-3 against the 83rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+11.8 per game).
Arizona's strong offense (26th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th); that mismatch is where most of Arizona's projected points come from. Expect Kansas State to find it hard going: Arizona's strong defense (22nd) outranks Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arizona by 29 and Kansas State by 16 about 80% of the time.
Kansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Arizona is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Arizona vs Kansas State: stat comparison
| Stat | Arizona | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.1#22 | 32.9#43 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.7#23 | 21.1#47 |
| Yards per play | 6.96#13 | 6.35#47 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.81#15 | 5.20#38 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.9#93 | 222.3#16 |
| Net passing yards per game | 311.6#8 | 226.9#66 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.4#33 | 174.1#96 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.7#43 | 134.3#3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#80 | 0.71#45 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#124 | 0.29#134 |
| Sacks per game | 2.71#19 | 2.43#37 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#107 | 0.86#9 |
| Stat | Arizona | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#17 | +0.14#43 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#31 | +0.02#53 |
| Success rate | 49.7%#12 | 44.8%#48 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.0%#15 | 37.2%#26 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.9%#24 | 11.6%#97 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#30 | 13.9%#112 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6%#74 | 16.5%#17 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#93 | 11.6%#30 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.68#29 | 4.33#48 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.69#1 | 4.42#114 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#88 | own 30#73 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#39 | own 27#29 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#61 | 70.7#16 |
| Stat | Arizona | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#86 | +0.17#22 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33#9 | +0.12#60 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#54 | -0.01#49 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#32 | +0.05#72 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.5%#35 | 48.6%#24 |
| Passing success rate | 52.3%#9 | 41.4%#72 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.4%#76 | 16.0%#48 |
| Passing-down success rate | 43.4%#5 | 35.2%#32 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.6%#67 | 30.9%#87 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 58.6%#2 | 54.5%#8 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.9%#50 | 34.0%#27 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.2%#19 | 60.3%#77 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.8%#20 | 68.9%#117 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arizona schedule · Kansas State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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