Matchup analysis
Our model projects Wisconsin 29, Purdue 20 at Ross-Ade Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Wisconsin wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.8 points and 49.1 combined points.
Wisconsin (No. 25) is 5-2 against the 14th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+11.7 per game). Purdue is 3-4 against the 12th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.3 and allowing 32.3 points per game (-1 per game).
Wisconsin's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Purdue's below-average defense (101st); that mismatch is where most of Wisconsin's projected points come from. Expect Purdue to find it hard going: Wisconsin's elite defense (13th) outranks Purdue's middle-of-the-pack offense (61st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wisconsin by 31 and Purdue by 14 about 80% of the time.
Purdue gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Wisconsin is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Wisconsin vs Purdue: stat comparison
| Stat | Wisconsin | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.0#79 | 31.3#53 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.3#13 | 32.3#123 |
| Yards per play | 6.00#68 | 6.08#60 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.43#3 | 7.04#134 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.0#92 | 145.0#102 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.9#105 | 270.1#22 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 114.4#17 | 170.0#94 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.1#30 | 258.6#126 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#51 | 0.71#47 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#59 | 1.00#54 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#99 | 1.14#121 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#27 | 2.29#101 |
| Stat | Wisconsin | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#85 | +0.12#51 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#10 | +0.20#127 |
| Success rate | 39.3%#117 | 45.5%#44 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.4%#35 | 47.4%#132 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#76 | 13.7%#42 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.9%#2 | 19.1%#138 |
| Havoc rate | 14.4%#65 | 12.8%#100 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6%#52 | 14.0%#91 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.09#72 | 4.27#51 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.10#12 | 4.67#125 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#25 | own 31#41 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#5 | own 28#59 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.9#134 | 68.3#43 |
| Stat | Wisconsin | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#55 | +0.02#101 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#103 | +0.21#32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#7 | +0.14#124 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#22 | +0.26#125 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.6%#108 | 42.4%#86 |
| Passing success rate | 38.9%#101 | 48.2%#25 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#23 | 16.8%#67 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.1%#119 | 36.4%#26 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6%#13 | 39.2%#130 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.1%#32 | 44.4%#40 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8%#100 | 50.0%#132 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#97 | 60.0%#81 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.0%#6 | 71.4%#122 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wisconsin schedule · Purdue schedule · all Week 12 projections
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