Matchup analysis
Our model projects Army 29, East Carolina 24 at Michie Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Army wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.9 points and 52.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
East Carolina is 3-4 against the 95th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-1.3 per game). Army is 5-2 against the 107th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.3 and allowing 22.1 points per game (+13.2 per game).
Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd) should limit East Carolina's below-average offense (93rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense). Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (64th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) meets East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Army puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between East Carolina by 18 and Army by 27 about 80% of the time.
Army gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Army by about 2.8. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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East Carolina vs Army: stat comparison
| Stat | East Carolina | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.0#94 | 35.3#32 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3#94 | 22.1#55 |
| Yards per play | 5.50#111 | 6.34#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.12#34 | 6.49#124 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.6#83 | 337.0#2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.7#94 | 73.1#137 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.4#78 | 156.3#72 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.1#58 | 217.1#91 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#110 | 0.29#9 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#81 | 0.43#126 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#33 | 1.14#123 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#104 | 0.43#4 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Army |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#109 | +0.24#8 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#20 | +0.21#131 |
| Success rate | 38.6%#122 | 49.4%#14 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1%#22 | 44.5%#112 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#77 | 12.0%#85 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#102 | 14.4%#123 |
| Havoc rate | 16.3%#20 | 12.5%#107 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#69 | 9.5%#7 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.41#119 | 4.76#24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.89#77 | 3.59#48 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#65 | own 30#59 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#98 | own 26#23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#69 | 64.7#80 |
| Stat | East Carolina | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00#111 | +0.26#3 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#98 | +0.19#37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#22 | +0.18#131 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07#30 | +0.25#124 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7%#121 | 51.8%#9 |
| Passing success rate | 37.6%#112 | 42.5%#63 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7%#82 | 11.4%#4 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.9%#120 | 32.4%#51 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4%#76 | 37.9%#128 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.7%#122 | 51.2%#14 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2%#36 | 46.3%#127 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.8%#132 | 74.1%#17 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.7%#53 | 54.2%#43 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: East Carolina schedule · Army schedule · all Week 12 projections
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