Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisville 31, Pittsburgh 28 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Louisville wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 59.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Pittsburgh is 5-3 against the 53rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+10.7 per game). Louisville is 4-3 against the 17th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.7 and allowing 27.4 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Pittsburgh's strong offense (30th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th); that mismatch is where most of Pittsburgh's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Louisville's strong offense (20th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.7 points against an average defense) against Pittsburgh's strong defense (38th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Pittsburgh by 19 and Louisville by 26 about 80% of the time.
Louisville gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Louisville by about 1.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Pittsburgh vs Louisville: stat comparison
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6#49 | 38.7#11 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9#41 | 27.4#99 |
| Yards per play | 6.38#42 | 7.85#1 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.53#64 | 5.68#73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.9#82 | 227.6#13 |
| Net passing yards per game | 282.4#15 | 257.9#37 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 88.3#3 | 163.0#88 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 253.5#122 | 257.3#125 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#70 | 0.57#38 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#29 | 1.29#25 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13#66 | 2.43#44 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#29 | 2.00#84 |
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#64 | +0.29#4 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#79 | +0.10#102 |
| Success rate | 43.8%#61 | 48.9%#19 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.9%#24 | 41.9%#81 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#84 | 18.5%#1 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#66 | 10.9%#46 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#56 | 13.7%#72 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.3%#46 | 15.6%#122 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.16#62 | 4.74#25 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.63#51 | 3.74#62 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#77 | own 29#81 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#58 | own 29#64 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.5#30 | 61.9#109 |
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00#112 | +0.27#2 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#39 | +0.31#12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#8 | +0.03#67 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20#118 | +0.17#110 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#45 | 48.8%#23 |
| Passing success rate | 41.0%#76 | 49.0%#20 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2%#35 | 21.9%#129 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#65 | 33.6%#41 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7%#69 | 33.1%#112 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.7%#66 | 45.0%#36 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.7%#91 | 35.0%#34 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.7%#75 | 75.0%#13 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#74 | 48.1%#28 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Pittsburgh schedule · Louisville schedule · all Week 12 projections
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