2026 schedule

Pittsburgh Panthers

5-3SOS #53

2026 season so far

Pittsburgh is 5-3 against the 53rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+10.7 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Pittsburgh ranks 32nd of 139 FBS teams overall — 30th on offense and 38th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: vs Georgia Tech in Week 9. We project Pittsburgh 35, Georgia Tech 22 — Pittsburgh wins 80% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Miami (OH) RedHawks
0-1 · SOS #117
Win 59-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 10.1
Total 54.5
DraftKings
PITT -16.5
Total 47.5
Final Pittsburgh by 45. Pittsburgh beat the spread. 73 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -16.25 (open Pittsburgh -16.5) · O/U 47.25 (open 50.5) · ML +550 / -825 · Pittsburgh 85% no-vig · model vs market -6.2 pts, -11 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)
CW Acrisure Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
vs
UCF Knights
1-1 · SOS #35
Win 12-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 11.3
Total 54.3
DraftKings
PITT -7.5
Total 55.5
Final Pittsburgh by 5. UCF beat the spread. 19 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -7.25 (open Pittsburgh -8) · O/U 55.25 (open 54.25) · ML +245 / -299 · Pittsburgh 72% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +5 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)
ESPN2 Acrisure Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: hit · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
vs
Syracuse Orange
1-2 · SOS #77
Win 27-13
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 14.7
Total 50.1
DraftKings
PITT -10.5
Total 51.5
Final Pittsburgh by 14. Pittsburgh beat the spread. 40 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -10.75 · O/U 51.5 (open 55.25) · ML +332.5 / -437.5 · Pittsburgh 78% no-vig · model vs market +3.9 pts, +5 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)
ESPN Acrisure Stadium
vs
Bucknell Bison
1-4 · SOS #115
Win 59-0
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 41.7
Total 49.5
DraftKings
PITT -54.5
Total 63.5
Final Pittsburgh by 59. Pittsburgh beat the spread. 59 points — under the 63.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -54.5 (open Pittsburgh -53.5) · O/U 63.75 (open 62.25) · model vs market -12.8 pts (Pittsburgh view)
ACCNX Acrisure Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Virginia Tech Hokies
4-1 · SOS #111
Win 35-33
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 1.8
Total 55.8
DraftKings
VT -1.5
Total 53.5
Final Pittsburgh by 2. Pittsburgh beat the spread. 68 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia Tech -1.5 (open Virginia Tech -4.75) · O/U 53.25 (open 54.5) · ML +132.5 / -155 · Virginia Tech 58% no-vig · model vs market -3.3 pts, -13 pct pts (Virginia Tech view)
Game-time weather: Rain, 72°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KROA)
ESPN Lane Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit
Well-protected short dogShort dog · YPP + protection · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, better in yards per play and much better at avoiding sacks: Record 109 hits, 80 misses (58% hit rate) over 189 graded games · 2026: 9-3Short dog · YPP + protection: hit Big-yardage short road dogShort road dog · better YPP · 2014–25 Road underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 125 hits, 94 misses (57% hit rate) over 219 graded games · 2026: 9-5Short road dog · better YPP: hit
J. Overton Jr. RB · Low rush yds 77 (avg 102) · 73% · 46 ✓D. Ferguson Jr. RB · Low rush yds 49 (avg 60) · 70% · 31 ✓L. Reynolds TE · Low catches 6.4 (avg 7.5) · 66% · 7 ✓
vs
North Carolina Tar Heels
3-2 · SOS #10
Loss 17-21
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 11.3
Total 51.3
DraftKings
PITT -3.5
Total 47.5
Final North Carolina by 4. North Carolina beat the spread. 38 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -3.5 (open Pittsburgh -3.75) · O/U 47.5 (open 47.25) · ML +152.5 / -180 · Pittsburgh 62% no-vig · model vs market +7.8 pts, +15 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAGC)
ESPN Acrisure Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
J. Shipp WR · Low rec yds 43 (avg 68) · 77% · 93 ✗B. Hall RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 63) · 77% · 25 ✓J. Shipp WR · Low catches 3.4 (avg 5) · 70% · 6 ✗
at
Boston College Eagles
3-3 · SOS #61
Loss 21-27
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 14.2
Total 48.2
DraftKings
PITT -6.5
Total 42.5
Final Boston College by 6. Boston College beat the spread. 48 points — over the 42.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -6.5 · O/U 42.75 (open 45.25) · ML -235 / +192.5 · Boston College 33% no-vig · model vs market -7.7 pts, -15 pct pts (Boston College view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 50°F, Wind 18 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBOS)
ESPN2 Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Pregame calls · how each did
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 87) · 76% · 7 ✓E. Dickens RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 47) · 72% · 57 ✗M. McKenzie QB · Low pass yds 157 (avg 193) · 68% · 295 ✗
at
#1 Miami Hurricanes
7-0 · SOS #72
Loss 23-52
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Miami by 20.9
Total 56.9
DraftKings
MIA -20.5
Total 50.5
Final Miami by 29. Miami beat the spread. 75 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -20.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML +1000 / -2000 · Miami 92% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, -0 pct pts (Miami view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 84°F, Wind 16 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHWO)
ESPNEWS/Disney+ Hard Rock Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: hit
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded gamesAway team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: hit (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · D. Ferguson Jr. RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 63) · 75% · 39 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · L. Wright RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 40) · 75% · 11 ✓J. Mallory RB · Low rush yds 50 (avg 66) · 72% · 47 ✓
vs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2-5 · SOS #43
Sat, Oct 31, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 35-22 · 80%
Our number
Pittsburgh by 13
Total 57
DraftKings
PITT -7.5
Total 54.5
We're 5.5 points higher on Pittsburgh than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -7.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +250 / -302.5 · Pittsburgh 73% no-vig · model vs market +5.5 pts, +7 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 57°F, Wind 3 mph E, 2% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN2 Acrisure Stadium
High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
J. Haynes RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 86) · 76%T. Maddox RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 47) · 72%
vs
Florida State Seminoles
3-4 · SOS #13
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 30-28 · 53%
Our number
Pittsburgh by 2
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Acrisure Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
A. Daniels QB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 51) · 75%O. Kromah RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 87) · 74%
at
Louisville Cardinals
4-3 · SOS #17
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 28-31 · 41%
Our number
Louisville by 3
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
I. Brown RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 81) · 73%K. Brown RB · Low rush yds 54 (avg 70) · 71%
at
California Golden Bears
3-5 · SOS #48
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 36-20 · 86%
Our number
Pittsburgh by 16
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
California Memorial Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Emory RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 29) · 75%

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Pittsburgh Panthers stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+8.6

32nd in FBS

Adj. offense

31.5

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

22.9

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	31.6	49 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	20.9	41 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.38	42 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.53	64 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	160.9	82 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	282.4	15 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	88.3	3 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	253.5	122 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.88	70 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.25	29 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.13	66 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.25	29 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.09	64 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.07	79 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	43.8%	61 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	36.9%	24 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	12.0%	84 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.5%	66 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	14.7%	56 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.3%	46 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.16	62 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.63	51 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 29	77 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 28	58 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	69.5	30 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.00	112 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.18	39 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.12	8 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.20	118 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	46.6%	45 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	41.0%	76 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	15.2%	35 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	31.4%	65 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	29.7%	69 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	41.7%	66 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	40.7%	91 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	60.7%	75 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	60.0%	74 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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