Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Pittsburgh 32.4, Syracuse 17.7 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Pittsburgh wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.7 points and 50.1 combined points.
Syracuse is 1-1, scoring 42 and allowing 12 points per game (+30 per game). Pittsburgh is 2-0, scoring 35.5 and allowing 10.5 points per game (+25 per game).
Pittsburgh's strong defense (38th) should limit Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Pittsburgh's strong offense (32nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense) against Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Syracuse by 8 and Pittsburgh by 37 about 80% of the time.
Pittsburgh gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Pittsburgh by about 12.6. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Syracuse 13, Pittsburgh 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.7 points and the total by 10.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Syracuse / Pittsburgh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Pittsburgh -10.75 | 55.25 → 51.5 | +332.5 / -437.5 |
| Bovada | Pittsburgh -11 | 51 → 51.5 | +335 / -450 |
| DraftKings | Pittsburgh -10.5 | 59.5 → 51.5 | +330 / -425 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Pittsburgh win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pittsburgh -14.5 | 50.1 | 83% |
| Market consensus | Pittsburgh -11 | 51.5 | 78% |
| Blended projection | Pittsburgh -11.5 | 52.1 | 78% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Pittsburgh win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 78% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Pittsburgh -14.7 · market Pittsburgh -10.75 · difference +3.9 pts (Pittsburgh view)
- Total
- model 50.1 · market 51.5 · difference -1.4
Model margin is 3.9 pts more toward Pittsburgh than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Syracuse 17.7, Pittsburgh 32.4 | Pittsburgh 83%right winner | 0.7 | 10.1 |
| New formula | Syracuse 20.1, Pittsburgh 34.9 | Pittsburgh 82%right winner | 0.8 | 15.0 |
Final: Syracuse 13, Pittsburgh 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Syracuse vs Pittsburgh: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Syracuse | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.0#30 | 35.5#53 |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0#27 | 10.5#17 |
| Yards per play | 6.26#69 | 6.60#53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 3.64#9 | 4.79#45 |
| Rushing yards per game | 191.0#59 | 139.0#101 |
| Net passing yards per game | 319.5#18 | 342.5#8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 89.5#18 | 56.5#4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 125.5#16 | 202.0#76 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#112 | 0.00#10 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#97 | 0.50#96 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#20 | 2.00#63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#122 | 1.00#42 |
| Stat | Syracuse | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#92 | +0.16#29 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#43 | 0.00#59 |
| Success rate | 39.4%#102 | 42.3%#85 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#76 | 29.5%#7 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3%#58 | 10.6%#112 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#46 | 10.2%#42 |
| Havoc rate | 15.4%#52 | 17.0%#29 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#83 | 11.4%#41 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.29#119 | 4.36#63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.54#55 | 3.75#67 |
| Average starting field position | own 39#6 | own 30#79 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#35 | own 25#23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 81.5#5 | 73.0#22 |
| Stat | Syracuse | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#90 | -0.15#128 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#75 | +0.45#5 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#60 | -0.28#3 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#39 | +0.13#99 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#43 | 39.0%#106 |
| Passing success rate | 38.2%#97 | 45.3%#60 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5%#114 | 21.4%#111 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.8%#65 | 38.1%#26 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.8%#34 | 22.5%#25 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.2%#18 | 41.4%#75 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.6%#30 | 29.6%#35 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.4%#110 | 60.0%#91 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.1%#105 | 100.0%#131 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Syracuse schedule · Pittsburgh schedule · all Week 3 projections
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