Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Pittsburgh 32.3, Miami (OH) 22.2 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Pittsburgh wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.1 points and 54.4 combined points.
Miami (OH) has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Pittsburgh has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Pittsburgh's strong defense (38th) should limit Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (103rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Pittsburgh's strong offense (30th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense) against Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (92nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami (OH) by 12 and Pittsburgh by 33 about 80% of the time.
Pittsburgh gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Pittsburgh by about 8. The game is on CW.
Result: Miami (OH) 14, Pittsburgh 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 34.9 points and the total by 18.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Miami (OH) / Pittsburgh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Pittsburgh -16.5 → Pittsburgh -16.25 | 50.5 → 47.25 | +550 / -825 |
| Bovada | Pittsburgh -16.5 → Pittsburgh -16 | 50.5 → 47 | +525 / -800 |
| DraftKings | Pittsburgh -16.5 | 47.5 | +575 / -850 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Pittsburgh win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pittsburgh -10 | 54.4 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Pittsburgh -16.5 | 47.3 | 85% |
| Blended projection | Pittsburgh -15.5 | 48.7 | 85% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Pittsburgh win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 85% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Pittsburgh -10.1 · market Pittsburgh -16.25 · difference -6.1 pts (Pittsburgh view)
- Total
- model 54.4 · market 47.25 · difference +7.1
Model margin is 6.1 pts more toward Miami (OH) than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Miami (OH) 22.2, Pittsburgh 32.3 | Pittsburgh 75%right winner | 34.9 | 18.6 |
| New formula | Miami (OH) 16.3, Pittsburgh 38.1 | Pittsburgh 90%right winner | 23.3 | 18.6 |
Final: Miami (OH) 14, Pittsburgh 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Miami (OH) vs Pittsburgh: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.5#97 | 33.7#20 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.7#41 | 24.8#68 |
| Yards per play | 5.78#78 | 6.07#51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.29#33 | 5.38#37 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.0#79 | 139.8#109 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.8#103 | 270.0#23 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.2#44 | 116.5#11 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.4#31 | 244.2#112 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.93#58 | 1.46#116 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#39 | 1.54#14 |
| Sacks per game | 2.79#11 | 2.23#49 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#83 | 3.00#124 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#112 | +0.02#79 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#37 | -0.10#17 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#103 | 40.9%#95 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6%#45 | 35.1%#9 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1%#79 | 15.1%#14 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9%#19 | 10.1%#23 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#56 | 15.8%#9 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6%#90 | 15.2%#123 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.84#85 | 3.85#81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.42#20 | 3.95#77 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#29 | own 33#11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#57 | own 32#117 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.2#127 | 67.5#56 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#108 | -0.02#93 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#85 | +0.05#63 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#40 | -0.15#5 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07#36 | -0.05#43 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4%#85 | 41.4%#93 |
| Passing success rate | 36.0%#117 | 40.6%#75 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#70 | 21.0%#110 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.7%#86 | 30.4%#73 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3%#68 | 25.1%#14 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.1%#116 | 35.8%#111 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.3%#101 | 34.4%#16 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.1%#81 | 52.5%#112 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.7%#32 | 59.0%#59 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami (OH) schedule · Pittsburgh schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.