Matchup analysis
Our model projects Pittsburgh 35, Georgia Tech 22 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Pittsburgh wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.8 points and 57 combined points.
Georgia Tech is 2-5 against the 43rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-3.6 per game). Pittsburgh is 5-3 against the 53rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+10.7 per game).
Pittsburgh's strong defense (38th) should limit Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (66th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Pittsburgh's strong offense (30th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense) against Georgia Tech's below-average defense (89th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia Tech by 10 and Pittsburgh by 35 about 80% of the time.
Pittsburgh gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Pittsburgh by about 10.7. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Georgia Tech / Pittsburgh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 53.5 | +250 / -302.5 |
| FanDuel | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 53.5 | +255 / -320 |
| BetRivers | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 53.5 | +265 / -360 |
| BetMGM | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 53.5 | +240 / -300 |
| DraftKings | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 54.5 | +245 / -305 |
| theScore Bet | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 54.5 | +250 / -300 |
| Pinnacle | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 53.5 | +244 / -299 |
| Bovada | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 54 | +250 / -300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 53.5 | +260 / -350 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Pittsburgh win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pittsburgh -13 | 57.0 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Pittsburgh -7.5 | 53.5 | 73% |
| Blended projection | Pittsburgh -8.5 | 54.2 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Pittsburgh win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) 73% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Pittsburgh -12.8 · market Pittsburgh -7.5 · difference +5.3 pts (Pittsburgh view)
- Total
- model 57.0 · market 53.5 · difference +3.5
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Pittsburgh 73%.
Model margin is 5.3 pts more toward Pittsburgh than the market.
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Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh: stat comparison
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.7#82 | 31.6#49 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3#114 | 20.9#41 |
| Yards per play | 6.50#34 | 6.38#42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#98 | 5.53#64 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.1#104 | 160.9#82 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.4#40 | 282.4#15 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 222.7#131 | 88.3#3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#40 | 253.5#122 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#103 | 0.88#70 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.29#135 | 1.25#29 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#96 | 2.13#66 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#100 | 1.25#29 |
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#50 | +0.09#64 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22#132 | +0.07#79 |
| Success rate | 44.8%#49 | 43.8%#61 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8%#119 | 36.9%#24 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.2%#11 | 12.0%#84 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#109 | 11.5%#66 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#124 | 14.7%#56 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#107 | 12.3%#46 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.93#87 | 4.16#62 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07#96 | 3.63#51 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#98 | own 29#77 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#113 | own 28#58 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4#113 | 69.5#30 |
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#32 | -0.00#112 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#65 | +0.18#39 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17#129 | -0.12#8 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#131 | +0.20#118 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.8%#63 | 46.6%#45 |
| Passing success rate | 44.8%#47 | 41.0%#76 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.1%#100 | 15.2%#35 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#79 | 31.4%#65 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.9%#134 | 29.7%#69 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.0%#114 | 41.7%#66 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.7%#121 | 40.7%#91 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.0%#117 | 60.7%#75 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.6%#38 | 60.0%#74 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia Tech schedule · Pittsburgh schedule · all Week 9 projections
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