Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Pittsburgh 31.3, North Carolina 20 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Pittsburgh wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.2 points and 51.3 combined points.
North Carolina is 2-2, scoring 24 and allowing 19.5 points per game (+4.5 per game). Pittsburgh (No. 25) is 5-0, scoring 38.4 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+25 per game).
Pittsburgh's strong defense (28th) should limit North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Pittsburgh's strong offense (25th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) against North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Carolina by 11 and Pittsburgh by 34 about 80% of the time.
Pittsburgh gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Pittsburgh by about 9.1. The game is on ESPN.
Result: North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17. North Carolina won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Carolina / Pittsburgh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Pittsburgh -3.75 → Pittsburgh -3.5 | 47.25 → 47.5 | +152.5 / -180 |
| Bovada | Pittsburgh -4 → Pittsburgh -3.5 | 47 → 47.5 | +160 / -185 |
| DraftKings | Pittsburgh -3.5 | 47.5 | +145 / -175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Pittsburgh win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pittsburgh -11 | 51.3 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Pittsburgh -3.5 | 47.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Pittsburgh -5 | 48.7 | 63% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Pittsburgh win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Pittsburgh -11.2 · market Pittsburgh -3.5 · difference +7.7 pts (Pittsburgh view)
- Total
- model 51.3 · market 47.5 · difference +3.8
Model margin is 7.7 pts more toward Pittsburgh than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Carolina 20.0, Pittsburgh 31.3 | Pittsburgh 77%wrong winner | 15.2 | 13.3 |
| New formula | North Carolina 19.5, Pittsburgh 31.3 | Pittsburgh 78%wrong winner | 15.8 | 12.7 |
Final: North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Carolina vs Pittsburgh: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | North Carolina | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.0#98 | 38.4#24 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.5#43 | 13.4#14 |
| Yards per play | 6.10#73 | 6.87#30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21#48 | 5.01#31 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.3#106 | 169.2#70 |
| Net passing yards per game | 203.3#91 | 309.2#12 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 171.3#99 | 79.8#3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.3#47 | 223.0#89 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#82 | 0.40#22 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#98 | 1.20#34 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#40 | 1.80#79 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#94 | 1.00#23 |
| Stat | North Carolina | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#72 | +0.17#37 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#103 | -0.01#47 |
| Success rate | 46.7%#38 | 43.2%#72 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1%#104 | 33.6%#7 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7%#72 | 14.4%#38 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.6%#2 | 10.1%#25 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1%#111 | 13.2%#84 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.8%#41 | 12.3%#49 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.89#20 | 4.75#25 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.55#49 | 2.96#11 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#81 | own 31#46 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#117 | own 26#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.0#128 | 69.6#35 |
| Stat | North Carolina | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#45 | 0.00#106 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#88 | +0.32#17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#121 | -0.09#22 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#74 | +0.04#71 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#18 | 44.1%#74 |
| Passing success rate | 43.9%#62 | 42.3%#78 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7%#53 | 18.9%#99 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.8%#13 | 33.7%#54 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.3%#14 | 23.5%#16 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.9%#77 | 45.5%#45 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.1%#100 | 30.0%#18 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.3%#72 | 66.5%#58 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 41.7%#12 | 40.2%#9 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina schedule · Pittsburgh schedule · all Week 6 projections
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