Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami 38.9, Pittsburgh 18 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 8. That is a heavy edge: Miami wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.9 points and 56.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Pittsburgh is 5-2, scoring 32.9 and allowing 16.4 points per game (+16.5 per game). Miami (No. 1) is 6-0, scoring 48.5 and allowing 14 points per game (+34.5 per game).
Miami's elite defense (4th) should limit Pittsburgh's strong offense (30th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Miami's elite offense (1st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43 points against an average defense) against Pittsburgh's strong defense (38th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Pittsburgh by 2 and Miami by 43 about 80% of the time.
Miami gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami by about 18.8. The game is on ESPNEWS/Disney+.
Result: Pittsburgh 23, Miami 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.1 points and the total by 18.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Pittsburgh / Miami) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami -20.5 | 50.5 | +1000 / -2000 |
| Opening line | Miami -23.5 | 53.5 | +1300 / -2800 |
| DraftKings | Miami -20.5 | 50.5 | +950 / -1650 |
| FanDuel | Miami -20.5 | 50.5 | +1000 / -2100 |
| BetRivers | Miami -21 | 50.5 | +1000 / -2500 |
| BetMGM | Miami -20.5 | 50.5 | +1000 / -1600 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 4:43 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Miami win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami -21 | 56.9 | 91% |
| Market consensus | Miami -20.5 | 50.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Miami -20.5 | 51.6 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Miami win probability
- model 91% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -0 pts
- Margin
- model Miami -20.9 · market Miami -20.5 · difference +0.4 pts (Miami view)
- Total
- model 56.9 · market 50.5 · difference +6.4
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Pittsburgh 18.0, Miami 38.9 | Miami 91%right winner | 8.1 | 18.1 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Pittsburgh 23, Miami 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Pittsburgh vs Miami: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.7#20 | 30.9#35 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8#68 | 14.8#5 |
| Yards per play | 6.07#51 | 6.16#42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.38#37 | 5.10#18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.8#109 | 157.3#80 |
| Net passing yards per game | 270.0#23 | 248.1#48 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.5#11 | 113.6#9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 244.2#112 | 206.6#49 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.46#116 | 0.94#59 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.54#14 | 1.44#22 |
| Sacks per game | 2.23#49 | 3.19#3 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#124 | 1.19#17 |
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#79 | +0.11#29 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#17 | -0.10#15 |
| Success rate | 40.9%#95 | 46.9%#19 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.1%#9 | 36.9%#17 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1%#14 | 12.3%#73 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1%#23 | 10.1%#25 |
| Havoc rate | 15.8%#9 | 16.4%#6 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#123 | 10.6%#27 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.85#81 | 4.41#23 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95#77 | 3.44#26 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#11 | own 31#31 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#117 | own 25#1 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5#56 | 65.8#72 |
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02#93 | +0.01#80 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#63 | +0.21#15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.15#5 | -0.00#64 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#43 | -0.17#14 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.4%#93 | 45.3%#49 |
| Passing success rate | 40.6%#75 | 48.5%#11 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0%#110 | 14.3%#15 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#73 | 33.7%#29 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.1%#14 | 27.8%#40 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.8%#111 | 46.2%#29 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.4%#16 | 32.9%#11 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 52.5%#112 | 74.1%#10 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.0%#59 | 54.3%#30 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Pittsburgh schedule · Miami schedule · all Week 8 projections
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