Matchup analysis
Our model projects Pittsburgh 36, California 20 at California Memorial Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: Pittsburgh wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.3 points and 56.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Pittsburgh is 5-3 against the 53rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+10.7 per game). California is 3-5 against the 48th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 31.6 points per game (-8.2 per game).
Pittsburgh's strong offense (30th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over California's below-average defense (109th); that mismatch is where most of Pittsburgh's projected points come from. Expect California to find it hard going: Pittsburgh's strong defense (38th) outranks California's below-average offense (100th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Pittsburgh by 39 and California by 6 about 80% of the time.
California gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Pittsburgh is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Pittsburgh vs California: stat comparison
| Stat | Pittsburgh | California |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6#49 | 23.4#102 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9#41 | 31.6#120 |
| Yards per play | 6.38#42 | 5.31#120 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.53#64 | 6.40#120 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.9#82 | 92.4#138 |
| Net passing yards per game | 282.4#15 | 281.5#17 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 88.3#3 | 197.8#119 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 253.5#122 | 216.1#87 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#70 | 0.88#71 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#29 | 1.00#51 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13#66 | 1.75#90 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#29 | 1.75#63 |
| Stat | Pittsburgh | California |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#64 | -0.02#121 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#79 | +0.13#115 |
| Success rate | 43.8%#61 | 37.8%#125 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.9%#24 | 41.1%#71 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#84 | 10.1%#128 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#66 | 16.0%#135 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#56 | 11.8%#117 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.3%#46 | 15.9%#124 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.16#62 | 3.17#128 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.63#51 | 4.57#121 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#77 | own 27#122 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#58 | own 33#132 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.5#30 | 70.4#19 |
| Stat | Pittsburgh | California |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.00#112 | -0.07#125 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#39 | +0.01#100 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12#8 | +0.20#133 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.20#118 | +0.05#73 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#45 | 37.6%#122 |
| Passing success rate | 41.0%#76 | 37.9%#109 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2%#35 | 23.0%#136 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#65 | 27.5%#112 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.7%#69 | 28.0%#49 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.7%#66 | 37.5%#96 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.7%#91 | 40.2%#87 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.7%#75 | 54.2%#111 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#74 | 66.7%#104 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Pittsburgh schedule · California schedule · all Week 13 projections
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