Matchup analysis
Our model projects Pittsburgh 30, Florida State 28 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Pittsburgh wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 58 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Florida State is 3-4 against the 13th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 27.9 points per game (+3.7 per game). Pittsburgh is 5-3 against the 53rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+10.7 per game).
Florida State's strong offense (25th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) meets Pittsburgh's strong defense (38th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida State puts up. Pittsburgh's strong offense (30th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Florida State's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th); that mismatch is where most of Pittsburgh's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida State by 21 and Pittsburgh by 24 about 80% of the time.
Pittsburgh gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Florida State would be favoured by 0.8. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Florida State vs Pittsburgh: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida State | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6#51 | 31.6#49 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.9#103 | 20.9#41 |
| Yards per play | 6.46#37 | 6.38#42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.31#116 | 5.53#64 |
| Rushing yards per game | 193.7#40 | 160.9#82 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.4#72 | 282.4#15 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.9#116 | 88.3#3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 235.6#108 | 253.5#122 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#104 | 0.88#70 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#92 | 1.25#29 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#25 | 2.13#66 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.57#116 | 1.25#29 |
| Stat | Florida State | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#33 | +0.09#64 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#129 | +0.07#79 |
| Success rate | 43.1%#69 | 43.8%#61 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7%#116 | 36.9%#24 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6%#14 | 12.0%#84 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1%#118 | 11.5%#66 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#108 | 14.7%#56 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1%#42 | 12.3%#46 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.70#28 | 4.16#62 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#56 | 3.63#51 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#78 | own 29#77 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#43 | own 28#58 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.3#84 | 69.5#30 |
| Stat | Florida State | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#39 | -0.00#112 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#25 | +0.18#39 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#88 | -0.12#8 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.34#133 | +0.20#118 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.9%#51 | 46.6%#45 |
| Passing success rate | 39.9%#89 | 41.0%#76 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.6%#11 | 15.2%#35 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.9%#13 | 31.4%#65 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9%#88 | 29.7%#69 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7%#57 | 41.7%#66 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#108 | 40.7%#91 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#12 | 60.7%#75 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#85 | 60.0%#74 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida State schedule · Pittsburgh schedule · all Week 11 projections
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