Matchup analysis
Our model projects Memphis 29, Navy 28 at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Memphis wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 57.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Memphis is 6-2 against the 104th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 23.8 points per game (+12.3 per game). Navy is 2-5 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.7 and allowing 29.1 points per game (+0.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (49th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) against Navy's below-average defense (86th). Navy's middle-of-the-pack offense (81st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) meets Memphis's middle-of-the-pack defense (80th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Navy puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Memphis by 24 and Navy by 21 about 80% of the time.
Navy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Memphis is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Memphis vs Navy: stat comparison
| Stat | Memphis | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.1#23 | 29.7#64 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8#66 | 29.1#107 |
| Yards per play | 7.44#6 | 6.67#26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.16#105 | 6.14#104 |
| Rushing yards per game | 240.9#9 | 312.9#3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 280.6#18 | 114.9#135 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.6#107 | 130.9#37 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.1#70 | 243.6#114 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#99 | 0.43#19 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#30 | 0.57#112 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#45 | 2.14#61 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#82 | 1.29#34 |
| Stat | Memphis | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#30 | +0.27#6 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#66 | +0.11#107 |
| Success rate | 48.6%#21 | 47.5%#26 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.1%#32 | 40.5%#64 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.4%#17 | 13.7%#43 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#126 | 11.2%#58 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0%#67 | 14.0%#68 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#47 | 10.6%#19 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.44#41 | 4.46#38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.46#38 | 3.90#78 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#116 | own 28#108 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#46 | own 31#120 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.1#22 | 64.1#85 |
| Stat | Memphis | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#31 | +0.31#1 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22#30 | +0.15#44 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#110 | -0.09#15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#35 | +0.34#134 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.7%#11 | 51.8%#8 |
| Passing success rate | 47.7%#28 | 33.3%#133 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.9%#12 | 11.9%#6 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2%#36 | 25.5%#121 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.9%#14 | 29.3%#66 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.8%#50 | 43.8%#51 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.7%#18 | 45.1%#123 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.0%#106 | 75.8%#10 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.3%#57 | 60.9%#76 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Memphis schedule · Navy schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.