Matchup analysis
Our model projects UConn 28, Old Dominion 20 at Pratt & Whitney Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: UConn wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.1 points and 48.5 combined points.
Old Dominion is 2-6 against the 79th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.5 and allowing 26.8 points per game (-11.3 per game). UConn is 4-3 against the 132nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+11.7 per game).
UConn's below-average defense (96th) should limit Old Dominion's struggling offense (130th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense). UConn's middle-of-the-pack offense (73rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) meets Old Dominion's below-average defense (84th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UConn puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Old Dominion by 14 and UConn by 31 about 80% of the time.
UConn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UConn by about 6. The game is on CBSSN.
Old Dominion vs UConn: stat comparison
| Stat | Old Dominion | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.5#133 | 35.6#30 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8#97 | 23.9#67 |
| Yards per play | 4.06#138 | 6.97#12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.99#23 | 5.59#69 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.4#133 | 220.9#17 |
| Net passing yards per game | 129.0#133 | 232.3#62 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.4#58 | 116.1#20 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.8#68 | 279.4#135 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#118 | 1.00#87 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#87 | 0.71#96 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#70 | 1.86#84 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.75#137 | 3.14#133 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.17#138 | +0.15#39 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#23 | +0.03#63 |
| Success rate | 30.4%#138 | 43.3%#64 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3%#42 | 41.1%#72 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5%#132 | 15.6%#15 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#44 | 9.6%#16 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#51 | 14.7%#58 |
| Havoc allowed | 22.1%#138 | 12.0%#39 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.87#135 | 4.31#50 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.71#57 | 3.57#45 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#131 | own 31#47 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 35#136 | own 28#45 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.1#120 | 65.0#75 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#136 | +0.22#6 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23#136 | +0.08#72 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14#5 | -0.05#29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#58 | +0.09#87 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.9%#136 | 45.8%#53 |
| Passing success rate | 27.7%#137 | 43.1%#56 |
| Run stuff rate | 30.5%#138 | 15.7%#42 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.0%#105 | 32.8%#45 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#81 | 27.4%#41 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.2%#119 | 40.0%#80 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.9%#60 | 40.2%#88 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.4%#128 | 73.0%#21 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.9%#16 | 60.0%#75 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Old Dominion schedule · UConn schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.