Matchup analysis
Our model projects Syracuse 26, Boston College 26 at Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Syracuse wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 52.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Syracuse is 3-4 against the 77th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 26.3 points per game (+5.3 per game). Boston College is 4-3 against the 61st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game).
Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense) meets Boston College's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Syracuse puts up. Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th) should limit Boston College's below-average offense (96th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Syracuse by 23 and Boston College by 22 about 80% of the time.
Boston College gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Syracuse is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Syracuse vs Boston College: stat comparison
| Stat | Syracuse | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6#50 | 24.4#96 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3#93 | 23.6#63 |
| Yards per play | 5.79#90 | 6.14#57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59#68 | 5.29#47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.3#56 | 195.6#36 |
| Net passing yards per game | 283.9#14 | 195.6#101 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.6#73 | 165.9#90 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.9#45 | 178.4#25 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#123 | 1.29#127 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#69 | 1.43#17 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#39 | 2.29#53 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#108 | 2.43#110 |
| Stat | Syracuse | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#53 | +0.02#104 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#56 | -0.01#42 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#63 | 41.9%#84 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5%#85 | 40.2%#62 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8%#93 | 14.4%#31 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7%#110 | 9.1%#11 |
| Havoc rate | 16.4%#18 | 15.0%#43 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#56 | 16.4%#130 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67#104 | 3.41#118 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.11#101 | 3.49#42 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#36 | own 30#70 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#93 | own 31#118 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 80.1#1 | 63.7#91 |
| Stat | Syracuse | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#66 | +0.13#41 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#54 | -0.11#130 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#122 | -0.01#48 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#29 | -0.00#46 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1%#58 | 47.8%#33 |
| Passing success rate | 41.6%#67 | 34.3%#129 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7%#80 | 21.0%#123 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.7%#97 | 28.1%#103 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6%#57 | 31.4%#99 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4%#39 | 40.2%#78 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.2%#62 | 36.0%#44 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.8%#98 | 53.3%#115 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#103 | 56.8%#54 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Syracuse schedule · Boston College schedule · all Week 12 projections
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