Matchup analysis
Our model projects BYU 31, Kansas 22 at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: BYU wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.4 points and 53.5 combined points.
BYU (No. 8) is 6-1 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 18.6 points per game (+14.5 per game). Kansas is 3-4 against the 62nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31 and allowing 24 points per game (+7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: BYU's strong offense (18th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) against Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th). BYU's strong defense (15th) should limit Kansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (51st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between BYU by 32 and Kansas by 13 about 80% of the time.
Kansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. BYU is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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BYU vs Kansas: stat comparison
| Stat | BYU | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.1#40 | 31.0#55 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6#26 | 24.0#68 |
| Yards per play | 6.71#23 | 6.48#35 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.87#18 | 5.59#67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.6#35 | 215.6#22 |
| Net passing yards per game | 223.1#70 | 240.1#51 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 110.7#13 | 175.1#98 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.6#64 | 179.3#27 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#30 | 1.00#79 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#68 | 0.57#110 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#95 | 1.71#94 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.57#5 | 1.57#51 |
| Stat | BYU | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#38 | +0.09#65 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#48 | -0.01#37 |
| Success rate | 48.6%#20 | 41.2%#96 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3%#34 | 38.6%#36 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#61 | 16.2%#10 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1%#10 | 11.5%#65 |
| Havoc rate | 14.5%#63 | 15.9%#26 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.8%#9 | 14.1%#92 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.02#10 | 3.92#89 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.94#84 | 3.21#19 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#61 | own 27#121 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#66 | own 32#129 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7#100 | 70.3#21 |
| Stat | BYU | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#51 | +0.12#44 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22#28 | +0.05#82 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#75 | -0.04#35 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#39 | +0.02#55 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.3%#17 | 44.7%#65 |
| Passing success rate | 47.8%#26 | 37.3%#113 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#43 | 11.6%#5 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#64 | 24.8%#125 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#79 | 28.4%#51 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.8%#4 | 36.4%#104 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#101 | 33.0%#21 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 76.7%#8 | 67.9%#39 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#102 | 56.0%#49 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: BYU schedule · Kansas schedule · all Week 12 projections
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