Matchup analysis
Our model projects Delaware 29, New Mexico State 26 at Aggie Memorial Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Delaware wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 55 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Delaware is 4-4 against the 116th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.1 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+1.6 per game). New Mexico State is 3-5 against the 114th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.5 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-3.8 per game).
Delaware's below-average offense (84th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over New Mexico State's below-average defense (110th); that mismatch is where most of Delaware's projected points come from. New Mexico State's struggling offense (125th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense) meets Delaware's struggling defense (125th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points New Mexico State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Delaware by 25 and New Mexico State by 20 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Delaware is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Delaware vs New Mexico State: stat comparison
| Stat | Delaware | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.1#66 | 21.5#111 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.5#100 | 25.3#82 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#69 | 5.98#71 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#100 | 5.42#56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.1#121 | 162.7#79 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.9#34 | 221.1#73 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.0#54 | 130.9#38 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 266.9#130 | 218.3#93 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#107 | 1.43#131 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#70 | 0.86#74 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#27 | 2.43#43 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#130 | 1.57#55 |
| Stat | Delaware | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#56 | +0.05#92 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#96 | +0.03#62 |
| Success rate | 41.7%#88 | 41.7%#89 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6%#101 | 39.1%#40 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#59 | 12.6%#69 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#100 | 11.8%#71 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#50 | 14.6%#62 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#112 | 14.4%#102 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#65 | 3.61#106 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.57#46 | 4.00#89 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#37 | own 28#105 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#68 | own 33#134 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#76 | 64.1#86 |
| Stat | Delaware | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#87 | +0.08#67 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#45 | -0.01#109 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#85 | +0.01#58 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#91 | +0.03#63 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.1%#90 | 43.4%#80 |
| Passing success rate | 42.6%#62 | 36.8%#116 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5%#105 | 14.8%#30 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#60 | 32.6%#48 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0%#103 | 28.6%#58 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.8%#117 | 38.9%#90 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4%#53 | 39.8%#84 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.7%#101 | 55.0%#107 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.5%#109 | 59.1%#72 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Delaware schedule · New Mexico State schedule · all Week 12 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.