Matchup analysis
Our model projects Houston 38, West Virginia 29 at Milan Puskar Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Houston wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 66.4 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Houston (No. 18) is 6-2 against the 36th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 21 points per game (+15 per game). West Virginia is 5-3 against the 56th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 32.3 points per game (+3.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Houston's strong offense (27th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.3 points against an average defense) against West Virginia's struggling defense (121st). West Virginia's strong offense (29th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.6 points against an average defense) meets Houston's strong defense (31st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points West Virginia puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston by 32 and West Virginia by 13 about 80% of the time.
West Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Houston is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Houston vs West Virginia: stat comparison
| Stat | Houston | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.0#25 | 35.9#27 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0#45 | 32.3#122 |
| Yards per play | 6.80#19 | 6.42#38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#99 | 7.11#136 |
| Rushing yards per game | 209.6#25 | 272.8#6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 266.6#29 | 203.1#91 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 114.4#16 | 179.8#102 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.8#119 | 305.3#138 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63#40 | 0.50#23 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38#19 | 1.00#49 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#89 | 2.25#55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#28 | 1.88#80 |
| Stat | Houston | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#18 | +0.19#23 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#114 | +0.22#134 |
| Success rate | 51.7%#3 | 43.2%#67 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9%#102 | 47.1%#131 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#70 | 14.5%#29 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4%#104 | 15.7%#133 |
| Havoc rate | 17.7%#9 | 13.6%#75 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#21 | 12.3%#45 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.46#37 | 4.98#11 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.64#124 | 3.82#70 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#14 | own 29#86 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#1 | own 28#40 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.0#23 | 74.1#6 |
| Stat | Houston | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#56 | +0.18#15 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33#10 | +0.21#31 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#98 | +0.09#101 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#102 | +0.35#136 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.8%#14 | 44.8%#64 |
| Passing success rate | 53.9%#5 | 39.7%#92 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.6%#10 | 15.0%#33 |
| Passing-down success rate | 45.5%#2 | 32.7%#46 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1%#105 | 34.8%#121 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 61.0%#1 | 50.0%#16 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#67 | 42.3%#103 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.0%#38 | 64.9%#59 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.7%#127 | 57.1%#55 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston schedule · West Virginia schedule · all Week 12 projections
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