Matchup analysis
Our model projects West Florida 34.9, Northeastern State 21.2 at Pen-Air Field in Week 6. That is a solid edge: West Florida wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.7 points and 56 combined points.
Northeastern State is 0-2, scoring 15.5 and allowing 43 points per game (-27.5 per game). West Florida is 3-2, scoring 23.8 and allowing 27 points per game (-3.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northeastern State by 9 and West Florida by 36 about 80% of the time.
West Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour West Florida by about 11.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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More: Northeastern State schedule · West Florida schedule · all Week 6 projections
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