Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Central Arkansas 32, West Florida 25.7 at Estes Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Central Arkansas wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.3 points and 57.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
West Florida is 1-0, scoring 34 and allowing 31 points per game (+3 per game). Central Arkansas is 1-0, scoring 36 and allowing 24 points per game (+12 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Florida by 16 and Central Arkansas by 29 about 80% of the time.
Central Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Central Arkansas by about 4.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: West Florida 42, Central Arkansas 14. West Florida won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 34.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (West Florida / Central Arkansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Central Arkansas -7.5 | 55.5 | +227 / -296 |
| DraftKings | Central Arkansas -7.5 | 55.5 | +227 / -296 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Central Arkansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Central Arkansas -6.5 | 57.7 | 66% |
| Market consensus | Central Arkansas -7.5 | 55.5 | 71% |
| Blended projection | Central Arkansas -7.5 | 56.0 | 69% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Central Arkansas win probability
- model 66% · market (no-vig) 71% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Central Arkansas -6.3 · market Central Arkansas -7.5 · difference -1.2 pts (Central Arkansas view)
- Total
- model 57.7 · market 55.5 · difference +2.2
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward West Florida than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Florida 25.7, Central Arkansas 32.0 | Central Arkansas 66%wrong winner | 34.3 | 1.7 |
| New formula | West Florida 24.3, Central Arkansas 34.6 | Central Arkansas 73%wrong winner | 38.3 | 2.9 |
Final: West Florida 42, Central Arkansas 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: West Florida schedule · Central Arkansas schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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