Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected West Alabama 30.2, West Florida 23.5 at Pen-Air Field in Week 7. That is a lean: West Alabama wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 53.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
West Alabama has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. West Florida is 3-2, scoring 23.8 and allowing 27 points per game (-3.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Alabama by 29 and West Florida by 16 about 80% of the time.
West Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. West Alabama is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: West Alabama 3, West Florida 37. West Florida won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 40.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Alabama 30.2, West Florida 23.5 | West Alabama 67%wrong winner | 40.7 | 13.6 |
| New formula | West Alabama 21.2, West Florida 32.4 | West Florida 74%right winner | 22.8 | 13.5 |
Final: West Alabama 3, West Florida 37. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: West Alabama schedule · West Florida schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.