Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Abilene Christian 30.2, West Florida 23.1 at Wildcat Stadium (TX) in Week 5. That is a lean: Abilene Christian wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.1 points and 53.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
West Florida is 3-1, scoring 28 and allowing 25 points per game (+3 per game). Abilene Christian is 1-4, scoring 17.8 and allowing 30.6 points per game (-12.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Florida by 15 and Abilene Christian by 30 about 80% of the time.
Abilene Christian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Abilene Christian by about 5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: West Florida 7, Abilene Christian 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.9 points and the total by 11.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (West Florida / Abilene Christian) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Abilene Christian -2.5 → Abilene Christian -7 | 48.5 | +163 / -206 |
| DraftKings | Abilene Christian -2.5 → Abilene Christian -7 | 48.5 | +163 / -206 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Abilene Christian win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Abilene Christian -7 | 53.3 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Abilene Christian -7 | 48.5 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Abilene Christian -7 | 49.7 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Abilene Christian win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Abilene Christian -7.1 · market Abilene Christian -7 · difference +0.1 pts (Abilene Christian view)
- Total
- model 53.3 · market 48.5 · difference +4.8
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Florida 23.1, Abilene Christian 30.2 | Abilene Christian 68%right winner | 20.9 | 11.3 |
| New formula | West Florida 23.3, Abilene Christian 29.6 | Abilene Christian 66%right winner | 21.8 | 10.9 |
Final: West Florida 7, Abilene Christian 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: West Florida schedule · Abilene Christian schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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