Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern Illinois 34.7, West Florida 25.1 at Pen-Air Field in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Southern Illinois wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.6 points and 59.7 combined points.
Southern Illinois has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. West Florida has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Illinois by 32 and West Florida by 13 about 80% of the time.
West Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Southern Illinois is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southern Illinois 31, West Florida 34. West Florida won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Illinois / West Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southern Illinois -19.5 | 55.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Southern Illinois -19.5 | 55.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | West Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southern Illinois -9.5 | 59.7 | 26% |
| Market consensus | Southern Illinois -19.5 | 55.5 | 9% |
| Blended projection | Southern Illinois -18 | 56.1 | 11% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- West Florida win probability
- model 26% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Southern Illinois -9.6 · market Southern Illinois -19.5 · difference +9.9 pts (West Florida view)
- Total
- model 59.7 · market 55.5 · difference +4.2
Model margin is 9.9 pts more toward West Florida than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Illinois 34.7, West Florida 25.1 | Southern Illinois 74%wrong winner | 12.6 | 5.3 |
| New formula | Southern Illinois 30.5, West Florida 27.2 | Southern Illinois 58%wrong winner | 6.3 | 7.2 |
Final: Southern Illinois 31, West Florida 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Southern Illinois schedule · West Florida schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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