Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee Tech 33.3, Eastern Kentucky 17.5 at Tucker Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Tennessee Tech wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.7 points and 50.8 combined points.
Eastern Kentucky is 2-4, scoring 18.3 and allowing 28 points per game (-9.7 per game). Tennessee Tech is 5-1, scoring 31.5 and allowing 23.2 points per game (+8.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Kentucky by 7 and Tennessee Tech by 38 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tennessee Tech by about 13.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Eastern Kentucky 20, Tennessee Tech 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.3 points and the total by 18.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Kentucky / Tennessee Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee Tech -14 → Tennessee Tech -14.5 | 52.5 | +502 / -780 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee Tech -14 → Tennessee Tech -14.5 | 52.5 | +502 / -780 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee Tech -15.5 | 50.8 | 85% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee Tech -14.5 | 52.5 | 84% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee Tech -15 | 53.0 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee Tech win probability
- model 85% · market (no-vig) 84% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee Tech -15.7 · market Tennessee Tech -14.5 · difference +1.2 pts (Tennessee Tech view)
- Total
- model 50.8 · market 52.5 · difference -1.7
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Tennessee Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Kentucky 17.5, Tennessee Tech 33.3 | Tennessee Tech 85%right winner | 13.3 | 18.2 |
| New formula | Eastern Kentucky 18.1, Tennessee Tech 33.0 | Tennessee Tech 84%right winner | 14.2 | 17.9 |
Final: Eastern Kentucky 20, Tennessee Tech 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Kentucky vs Tennessee Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Eastern Kentucky | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.3 | 37.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 18.7 |
| Yards per play | 4.66 | 6.79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.53 | 4.71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.2 | 196.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 120.3 | 232.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 184.6 | 116.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 221.4 | 207.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 3.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.17 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Eastern Kentucky | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 43.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2% | 40.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 13.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 12.2% | 14.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 14.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70 | 2.85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.75 | 4.14 |
| Average starting field position | opp 14 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.0 | 63.2 |
| Stat | Eastern Kentucky | Tennessee Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.19 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.8% | 45.9% |
| Passing success rate | 36.9% | 45.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1% | 30.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.7% | 43.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.7% | 32.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.1% | 45.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.6% | 62.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Kentucky schedule · Tennessee Tech schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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