Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Central Arkansas 29.8, Central Oklahoma 24.9 at Estes Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Central Arkansas wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.9 points and 54.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Central Oklahoma has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Central Arkansas is 1-1, scoring 25 and allowing 33 points per game (-8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Oklahoma by 18 and Central Arkansas by 27 about 80% of the time.
Central Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Central Arkansas by about 2.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Central Oklahoma 20, Central Arkansas 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 34.1 points and the total by 24.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Oklahoma 24.9, Central Arkansas 29.8 | Central Arkansas 63%right winner | 34.1 | 24.4 |
| New formula | Central Oklahoma 25.3, Central Arkansas 33.0 | Central Arkansas 67%right winner | 31.3 | 20.7 |
Final: Central Oklahoma 20, Central Arkansas 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Central Oklahoma schedule · Central Arkansas schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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