Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida State 47.3, Central Arkansas 12.9 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Florida State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 34.4 points and 60.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Central Arkansas is 2-2, scoring 29.5 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+1.2 per game). Florida State is 1-2, scoring 31.3 and allowing 31.3 points per game (+0 per game).
Central Arkansas plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Florida State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida State by 12 and Florida State by 57 about 80% of the time.
Florida State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida State by about 32.3. The game is on ACC Network.
Result: Central Arkansas 7, Florida State 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.4 points and the total by 19.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Central Arkansas / Florida State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida State -44.5 → Florida State -46 | 61 → 62.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Florida State -42.5 → Florida State -45.5 | 59.5 → 62.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Florida State -46.5 | 62.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida State -34.5 | 60.1 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Florida State -46 | 62.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Florida State -44.5 | 62.2 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida State win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Florida State -34.4 · market Florida State -46 · difference -11.6 pts (Florida State view)
- Total
- model 60.1 · market 62.5 · difference -2.4
Model margin is 11.6 pts more toward Central Arkansas than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Arkansas 12.9, Florida State 47.3 | Florida State 99%right winner | 7.4 | 19.1 |
| New formula | Central Arkansas 12.2, Florida State 46.8 | Florida State 99%right winner | 7.6 | 18.1 |
Final: Central Arkansas 7, Florida State 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central Arkansas vs Florida State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5 | 31.3#74 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3 | 31.3#116 |
| Yards per play | 6.64 | 6.31#68 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.54 | 7.38#131 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.5 | 187.3#54 |
| Net passing yards per game | 176.8 | 227.3#71 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.3 | 161.0#90 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.3 | 328.3#137 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 1.33#111 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00 | 1.33#33 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.00#110 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 2.33#104 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.15#45 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.31#137 |
| Success rate | 42.4% | 40.6%#103 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 46.2%#120 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6% | 14.2%#46 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1% | 16.6%#133 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1% | 13.6%#74 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8% | 14.2%#97 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 5.22#16 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 3.94#73 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 28#104 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 28#63 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3 | 65.7#72 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.07#72 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.26#33 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02 | +0.03#78 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.53#137 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1% | 43.2%#90 |
| Passing success rate | 35.6% | 37.2%#108 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 17.1%#77 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.1% | 36.7%#34 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.1% | 37.7%#123 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.0% | 42.9%#69 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.2% | 51.2%#126 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 84.6%#7 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 50.0%#39 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Arkansas schedule · Florida State schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.