Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tarleton State 41, Central Arkansas 20.1 at Tarleton Memorial Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Tarleton State wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.9 points and 61 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Central Arkansas is 2-4, scoring 23.2 and allowing 27.8 points per game (-4.6 per game). Tarleton State is 6-0, scoring 39.5 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+16.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Arkansas by 2 and Tarleton State by 43 about 80% of the time.
Tarleton State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tarleton State by about 18.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Central Arkansas 35, Tarleton State 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.9 points and the total by 23.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Central Arkansas / Tarleton State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tarleton State -18.5 → Tarleton State -19.5 | 62.5 → 61.5 | +610 / -1040 |
| DraftKings | Tarleton State -18.5 → Tarleton State -19.5 | 62.5 → 61.5 | +610 / -1040 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tarleton State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tarleton State -21 | 61.0 | 91% |
| Market consensus | Tarleton State -19.5 | 61.5 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Tarleton State -20 | 61.4 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tarleton State win probability
- model 91% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Tarleton State -20.9 · market Tarleton State -19.5 · difference +1.4 pts (Tarleton State view)
- Total
- model 61.0 · market 61.5 · difference -0.5
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Tarleton State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Central Arkansas 20.1, Tarleton State 41.0 | Tarleton State 91%right winner | 6.9 | 23.0 |
| New formula | Central Arkansas 20.5, Tarleton State 39.1 | Tarleton State 89%right winner | 4.6 | 24.4 |
Final: Central Arkansas 35, Tarleton State 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Central Arkansas vs Tarleton State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Tarleton State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.5 | 42.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.2 | 18.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.22 | 6.85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.26 | 5.78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 199.0 | 209.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.6 | 259.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 202.2 | 183.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 256.3 | 176.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75 | 0.57 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 2.21 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 2.29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 1.93 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Tarleton State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.19 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.9% | 45.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 39.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 15.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5% | 14.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 15.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 14.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67 | 4.19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.46 | 2.55 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.1 | 68.4 |
| Stat | Central Arkansas | Tarleton State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.29 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21 | -0.07 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.2% | 45.8% |
| Passing success rate | 41.4% | 46.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.0% | 21.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4% | 34.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7% | 25.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.9% | 42.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.5% | 31.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.5% | 67.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.3% | 35.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Arkansas schedule · Tarleton State schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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