Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas Tech 46.7, Abilene Christian 7.8 at Galaxy Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Texas Tech wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 38.9 points and 54.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Abilene Christian is 0-1, scoring 14 and allowing 21 points per game (-7 per game). Texas Tech has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Abilene Christian plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Texas Tech's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Tech by 16 and Texas Tech by 61 about 80% of the time.
Texas Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas Tech by about 36.8. The game is on FS1.
Result: Abilene Christian 10, Texas Tech 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.9 points and the total by 11.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Abilene Christian / Texas Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas Tech -42.5 → Texas Tech -45 | 59.5 → 61 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Texas Tech -42.5 → Texas Tech -45.5 | 59.5 → 61.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Texas Tech -42.5 → Texas Tech -44.5 | 59.5 → 60.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas Tech -39 | 54.4 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Texas Tech -45 | 61.0 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Texas Tech -44.5 | 60.6 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas Tech win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Texas Tech -38.9 · market Texas Tech -45 · difference -6.1 pts (Texas Tech view)
- Total
- model 54.4 · market 61 · difference -6.6
Model margin is 6.1 pts more toward Abilene Christian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Abilene Christian 7.8, Texas Tech 46.7 | Texas Tech 99%right winner | 15.9 | 11.4 |
| New formula | Abilene Christian 8.5, Texas Tech 50.1 | Texas Tech 99%right winner | 18.6 | 15.7 |
Final: Abilene Christian 10, Texas Tech 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Abilene Christian vs Texas Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.6 | 39.4#7 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 11.8#3 |
| Yards per play | 6.02 | 6.15#44 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 4.44#3 |
| Rushing yards per game | 181.7 | 190.3#36 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.8 | 259.1#33 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.9 | 99.8#4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.1 | 189.2#28 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14 | 1.14#87 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.71 | 2.00#4 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86 | 2.71#13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.07 | 1.79#72 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.03#72 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | -0.32#1 |
| Success rate | 45.4% | 42.5%#65 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 29.1%#1 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 14.2%#22 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7% | 7.0%#1 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 17.6%#1 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 10.9%#37 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.27 | 4.27#37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12 | 2.84#3 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | own 36#1 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | own 28#30 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 73.1#8 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.04#58 |
| Passing EPA per play | 0.00 | +0.01#81 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | -0.27#1 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | -0.36#1 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8% | 42.8%#74 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0% | 42.3%#55 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1% | 20.8%#108 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9% | 31.9%#48 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1% | 21.6%#2 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.7% | 51.6%#7 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4% | 31.6%#7 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5% | 55.6%#103 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.0% | 60.0%#69 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Abilene Christian schedule · Texas Tech schedule · all Week 1 projections
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