Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tarleton State 37.7, West Georgia 20.8 at University Stadium (GA) in Week 8. That is a heavy edge: Tarleton State wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.9 points and 58.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Tarleton State is 7-0, scoring 40.9 and allowing 25 points per game (+15.9 per game). West Georgia is 1-6, scoring 17.6 and allowing 31.3 points per game (-13.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tarleton State by 39 and West Georgia by 6 about 80% of the time.
West Georgia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tarleton State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Tarleton State 49, West Georgia 6. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.1 points and the total by 3.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tarleton State 37.7, West Georgia 20.8 | Tarleton State 87%right winner | 26.1 | 3.5 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Tarleton State 49, West Georgia 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tarleton State vs West Georgia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tarleton State | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.4 | 25.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6 | 21.2 |
| Yards per play | 6.85 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78 | 5.46 |
| Rushing yards per game | 209.4 | 228.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.2 | 195.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.7 | 154.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.1 | 209.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57 | 1.36 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.21 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29 | 2.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.93 | 1.55 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | -0.10 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 40.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0% | 37.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1% | 12.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 15.1% | 14.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8% | 10.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19 | 3.66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.55 | 2.51 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.4 | 75.8 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | West Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.29 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8% | 41.5% |
| Passing success rate | 46.1% | 38.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4% | 19.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.3% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.0% | 27.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7% | 45.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 38.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.4% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.8% | 39.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tarleton State schedule · West Georgia schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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