Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Iowa State 29.3, Bowling Green 17.1 at Jack Trice Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Iowa State wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.2 points and 46.4 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Bowling Green is 0-2, scoring 10 and allowing 38 points per game (-28 per game). Iowa State is 1-1, scoring 25.5 and allowing 13 points per game (+12.5 per game).
Expect Bowling Green to find it hard going: Iowa State's strong defense (37th) outranks Bowling Green's struggling offense (136th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.9 points against an average defense). Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bowling Green's below-average defense (111th); that mismatch is where most of Iowa State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bowling Green by 10 and Iowa State by 35 about 80% of the time.
Iowa State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Iowa State by about 10.1. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Bowling Green 7, Iowa State 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 35.8 points and the total by 15.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bowling Green / Iowa State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Iowa State -22.75 | 45.75 → 43.5 | +1100 / -2300 |
| Bovada | Iowa State -23 | 46 → 43.5 | +1000 / -2200 |
| DraftKings | Iowa State -22.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | +1200 / -2400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa State -12 | 46.4 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Iowa State -23 | 43.5 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Iowa State -21 | 45.0 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa State win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model Iowa State -12.2 · market Iowa State -22.75 · difference -10.5 pts (Iowa State view)
- Total
- model 46.4 · market 43.5 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 10.5 pts more toward Bowling Green than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bowling Green 17.1, Iowa State 29.3 | Iowa State 79%right winner | 35.8 | 15.6 |
| New formula | Bowling Green 10.1, Iowa State 33.3 | Iowa State 93%right winner | 24.8 | 18.6 |
Final: Bowling Green 7, Iowa State 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bowling Green vs Iowa State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Bowling Green | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 10.0#136 | 25.5#91 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.0#132 | 13.0#33 |
| Yards per play | 5.25#117 | 5.52#108 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.18#136 | 4.57#35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 92.5#134 | 124.0#116 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.5#97 | 155.0#120 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 252.5#135 | 123.0#61 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.5#103 | 160.5#39 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#92 | 0.00#6 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#107 | 1.00#58 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#117 | 3.00#19 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#27 | 0.50#16 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#121 | -0.00#109 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.27#133 | -0.14#15 |
| Success rate | 35.7%#125 | 33.7%#131 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0%#133 | 33.3%#18 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7%#109 | 12.2%#82 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6%#132 | 5.6%#3 |
| Havoc rate | 6.3%#137 | 13.0%#90 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#49 | 16.3%#118 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.86#131 | 5.67#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.43#111 | 2.60#9 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#109 | own 31#68 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#83 | own 30#93 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.0#125 | 50.5#138 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.35#138 | -0.11#124 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33#18 | +0.18#42 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18#126 | -0.12#25 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.37#131 | -0.15#20 |
| Rushing success rate | 23.4%#138 | 30.6%#131 |
| Passing success rate | 51.4%#34 | 38.9%#91 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.2%#117 | 17.2%#73 |
| Passing-down success rate | 15.4%#134 | 29.7%#88 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8%#112 | 13.9%#3 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5%#92 | 34.8%#103 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.3%#62 | 32.3%#48 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#59 | 71.4%#40 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#57 | 66.7%#98 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bowling Green schedule · Iowa State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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