Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bowling Green 23, Massachusetts 20 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Bowling Green wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 42.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Massachusetts is 4-4 against the 138th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.5 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+5.4 per game). Bowling Green is 2-6 against the 99th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.8 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-11 per game).
Bowling Green's below-average defense (106th) should limit Massachusetts's struggling offense (132nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17 points against an average defense). Bowling Green's struggling offense (134th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.6 points against an average defense) meets Massachusetts's struggling defense (124th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bowling Green puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Massachusetts by 19 and Bowling Green by 26 about 80% of the time.
Bowling Green gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bowling Green by about 1.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Massachusetts vs Bowling Green: stat comparison
| Stat | Massachusetts | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.5#87 | 18.8#130 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1#49 | 29.8#109 |
| Yards per play | 5.88#81 | 5.10#128 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.06#30 | 6.34#118 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.8#87 | 112.8#134 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.0#112 | 179.9#117 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.1#70 | 227.4#134 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.8#26 | 157.1#11 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.38#14 | 0.88#72 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#31 | 0.63#103 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#35 | 2.38#46 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#50 | 1.50#48 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#86 | -0.03#122 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#29 | +0.09#97 |
| Success rate | 41.8%#86 | 41.9%#83 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#51 | 45.7%#126 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#89 | 10.2%#127 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#37 | 12.9%#93 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#38 | 13.7%#71 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5%#50 | 14.6%#105 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.02#80 | 3.43#116 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.69#54 | 4.04#94 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#49 | own 29#96 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#99 | own 31#110 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.1#131 | 57.4#136 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#85 | -0.12#135 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#87 | +0.07#77 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#71 | +0.15#126 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#12 | +0.01#54 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.5%#78 | 38.6%#116 |
| Passing success rate | 40.0%#88 | 44.9%#46 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#46 | 20.4%#118 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.7%#98 | 26.7%#115 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.0%#26 | 31.2%#94 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.3%#123 | 42.3%#64 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.6%#57 | 36.4%#47 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.5%#89 | 55.2%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.4%#84 | 58.0%#63 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Massachusetts schedule · Bowling Green schedule · all Week 13 projections
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