Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nebraska 30.3, Bowling Green 17 at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Nebraska wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.3 points and 47.3 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Bowling Green is 0-1, scoring 13 and allowing 20 points per game (-7 per game). Nebraska is 1-0, scoring 49 and allowing 21 points per game (+28 per game).
Nebraska's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th) should limit Bowling Green's struggling offense (138th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Nebraska's strong offense (33rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.6 points against an average defense) against Bowling Green's below-average defense (85th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bowling Green by 9 and Nebraska by 36 about 80% of the time.
Nebraska gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Nebraska by about 11.2. The game is on FS1.
Result: Bowling Green 7, Nebraska 56. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 35.7 points and the total by 15.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bowling Green / Nebraska) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nebraska -27.25 → Nebraska -30.5 | 50.25 → 48.75 | +2050 / -9500 |
| Bovada | Nebraska -29 → Nebraska -30.5 | 52 → 49 | +1600 / -10000 |
| DraftKings | Nebraska -25.5 → Nebraska -30.5 | 48.5 | +2500 / -9000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nebraska win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nebraska -13.5 | 47.3 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Nebraska -30.5 | 48.8 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Nebraska -28 | 49.6 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nebraska win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference -14 pts
- Margin
- model Nebraska -13.3 · market Nebraska -30.5 · difference -17.2 pts (Nebraska view)
- Total
- model 47.3 · market 48.75 · difference -1.5
Model margin is 17.2 pts more toward Bowling Green than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bowling Green 17.0, Nebraska 30.3 | Nebraska 81%right winner | 35.7 | 15.7 |
| New formula | Bowling Green 12.3, Nebraska 37.6 | Nebraska 94%right winner | 23.7 | 13.1 |
Final: Bowling Green 7, Nebraska 56. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bowling Green vs Nebraska: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bowling Green | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.5#117 | 28.7#60 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3#63 | 24.6#67 |
| Yards per play | 5.10#125 | 6.05#55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66#56 | 5.73#61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.6#68 | 162.4#77 |
| Net passing yards per game | 149.0#126 | 220.8#77 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.1#47 | 192.2#115 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.3#29 | 150.4#3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#95 | 0.69#17 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#42 | 0.69#119 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#93 | 1.62#101 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.42#112 | 2.54#115 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11#128 | +0.03#67 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#39 | +0.06#98 |
| Success rate | 36.0%#129 | 46.0%#31 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3%#39 | 43.0%#91 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#85 | 11.0%#113 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#82 | 13.4%#107 |
| Havoc rate | 16.2%#8 | 10.6%#119 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#108 | 11.3%#46 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.46#119 | 4.05#59 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.54#36 | 4.41#120 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#28 | own 32#19 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#89 | own 28#33 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5#115 | 63.4#105 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09#122 | +0.03#68 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15#123 | +0.04#67 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11#15 | +0.15#134 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#75 | -0.06#39 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.5%#128 | 47.6%#26 |
| Passing success rate | 34.3%#127 | 44.3%#36 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0%#89 | 13.6%#10 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8%#123 | 31.7%#54 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6%#84 | 35.8%#128 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.5%#106 | 46.0%#33 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9%#19 | 41.3%#80 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.6%#117 | 57.7%#93 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.8%#127 | 78.9%#135 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bowling Green schedule · Nebraska schedule · all Week 2 projections
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