Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bowling Green 26.4, Sacramento State 20.1 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Bowling Green wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.3 points and 46.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Sacramento State is 1-4, scoring 17.6 and allowing 28.6 points per game (-11 per game). Bowling Green is 1-4, scoring 11.4 and allowing 33 points per game (-21.6 per game).
Expect Sacramento State to find it hard going: Bowling Green's below-average defense (99th) outranks Sacramento State's struggling offense (133rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.1 points against an average defense). Bowling Green's struggling offense (138th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 14.6 points against an average defense) meets Sacramento State's struggling defense (134th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bowling Green puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacramento State by 16 and Bowling Green by 29 about 80% of the time.
Bowling Green gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bowling Green by about 4.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Sacramento State 10, Bowling Green 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.7 points and the total by 1.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sacramento State / Bowling Green) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Bowling Green -7.25 → Bowling Green -9.5 | 44.25 → 43.25 | +242.5 / -300 |
| DraftKings | Bowling Green -7.5 → Bowling Green -9.5 | 44.5 → 43.5 | +260 / -325 |
| Bovada | Bowling Green -7 → Bowling Green -9.5 | 44 → 43 | +225 / -275 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Bowling Green win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Bowling Green -6.5 | 46.4 | 66% |
| Market consensus | Bowling Green -9.5 | 43.3 | 72% |
| Blended projection | Bowling Green -9 | 44.8 | 73% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Bowling Green win probability
- model 66% · market (no-vig) 72% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Bowling Green -6.3 · market Bowling Green -9.5 · difference -3.2 pts (Bowling Green view)
- Total
- model 46.4 · market 43.25 · difference +3.1
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Sacramento State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sacramento State 20.1, Bowling Green 26.4 | Bowling Green 66%right winner | 21.7 | 1.6 |
| New formula | Sacramento State 18.3, Bowling Green 24.3 | Bowling Green 65%right winner | 22.0 | 5.4 |
Final: Sacramento State 10, Bowling Green 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sacramento State vs Bowling Green: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Sacramento State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.6#129 | 11.4#138 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.6#109 | 33.0#125 |
| Yards per play | 5.15#125 | 4.79#134 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.05#105 | 6.86#127 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.0#121 | 88.4#138 |
| Net passing yards per game | 222.0#73 | 180.6#108 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.4#79 | 245.6#137 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 195.2#58 | 159.0#23 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.40#122 | 0.60#53 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#125 | 0.80#81 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40#113 | 3.00#19 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.40#56 | 1.00#28 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09#130 | -0.11#134 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#51 | +0.11#104 |
| Success rate | 40.3%#106 | 38.3%#120 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.2%#41 | 47.0%#127 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7%#127 | 8.9%#135 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#118 | 14.6%#121 |
| Havoc rate | 9.1%#136 | 13.0%#90 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5%#114 | 14.9%#109 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.79#134 | 2.39#136 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.29#105 | 4.29#104 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#50 | own 27#119 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#56 | own 31#112 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8#51 | 56.2#132 |
| Stat | Sacramento State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06#120 | -0.29#138 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#121 | +0.06#80 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#40 | +0.19#126 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#61 | +0.00#56 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.5%#88 | 32.7%#137 |
| Passing success rate | 38.3%#104 | 43.4%#69 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.6%#130 | 25.0%#136 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8%#122 | 22.7%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.1%#13 | 26.9%#44 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.6%#102 | 36.1%#106 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.9%#36 | 34.0%#37 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 36.2%#136 | 50.0%#118 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.8%#109 | 55.6%#59 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacramento State schedule · Bowling Green schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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