Matchup analysis
Our model projects Miami (OH) 29, Buffalo 21 at Yager Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Miami (OH) wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.2 points and 49.7 combined points.
Buffalo is 5-3 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.6 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-2.8 per game). Miami (OH) is 5-3 against the 117th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 25.8 points per game (+1.2 per game).
Expect Buffalo to find it hard going: Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (92nd) outranks Buffalo's struggling offense (122nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense). Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (103rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Buffalo's struggling defense (119th); that mismatch is where most of Miami (OH)'s projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buffalo by 14 and Miami (OH) by 31 about 80% of the time.
Miami (OH) gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami (OH) by about 6.1. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Buffalo vs Miami (OH): stat comparison
| Stat | Buffalo | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.6#107 | 27.0#80 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4#84 | 25.8#88 |
| Yards per play | 4.68#137 | 6.51#33 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#85 | 5.94#90 |
| Rushing yards per game | 191.6#42 | 157.1#88 |
| Net passing yards per game | 149.0#130 | 218.8#77 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.0#81 | 108.0#11 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.4#99 | 267.6#131 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#100 | 0.75#55 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#122 | 0.88#65 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#107 | 2.00#75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38#105 | 2.50#115 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04#127 | +0.10#60 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#81 | +0.06#78 |
| Success rate | 36.9%#131 | 40.5%#104 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8%#54 | 40.7%#68 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.4%#133 | 14.7%#27 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#80 | 9.4%#14 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#84 | 13.3%#88 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#72 | 14.1%#96 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.71#100 | 3.97#84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.84#73 | 3.95#86 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#58 | own 32#26 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#79 | own 26#19 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.8#8 | 57.8#135 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#107 | +0.06#80 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#127 | +0.13#55 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#68 | -0.04#34 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#89 | +0.14#98 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7%#120 | 42.0%#91 |
| Passing success rate | 34.0%#130 | 39.9%#91 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#53 | 18.3%#88 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4%#129 | 30.4%#80 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.6%#12 | 32.9%#110 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.6%#87 | 37.0%#100 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#42 | 42.9%#110 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.3%#124 | 55.2%#105 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.5%#99 | 62.9%#88 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Buffalo schedule · Miami (OH) schedule · all Week 10 projections
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