Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami (OH) 22.8, Central Michigan 21.4 at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Miami (OH) wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 44.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Miami (OH) is 4-3, scoring 26.9 and allowing 25.6 points per game (+1.3 per game). Central Michigan is 3-4, scoring 16.6 and allowing 25.6 points per game (-9 per game).
Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (103rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense) meets Central Michigan's below-average defense (99th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Miami (OH) puts up. Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (93rd) should limit Central Michigan's struggling offense (127th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami (OH) by 24 and Central Michigan by 21 about 80% of the time.
Central Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Miami (OH) is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Miami (OH) 28, Central Michigan 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.4 points and the total by 10.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Miami (OH) / Central Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami (OH) -3.5 | 40.5 | -170 / +140 |
| Opening line | Central Michigan -1.5 | 42.5 | -105 / -115 |
| DraftKings | Miami (OH) -3.5 | 41.5 | -166 / +140 |
| FanDuel | Miami (OH) -3.5 | 40.5 | -170 / +140 |
| BetRivers | Miami (OH) -3.5 | 40.5 | -165 / +133 |
| BetMGM | Miami (OH) -3.5 | 40.5 | -175 / +145 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Central Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami (OH) -1.5 | 44.1 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Miami (OH) -3.5 | 40.5 | 42% |
| Blended projection | Miami (OH) -3 | 42.2 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Central Michigan win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Miami (OH) -1.4 · market Miami (OH) -3.5 · difference +2.1 pts (Central Michigan view)
- Total
- model 44.1 · market 40.5 · difference +3.6
Model margin is 2.1 pts more toward Central Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Miami (OH) 22.8, Central Michigan 21.4 | Miami (OH) 54%right winner | 0.4 | 10.9 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Miami (OH) 28, Central Michigan 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.5#97 | 22.5#106 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.7#41 | 23.5#55 |
| Yards per play | 5.78#78 | 5.36#109 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.29#33 | 5.75#63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.0#79 | 179.5#58 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.8#103 | 147.2#127 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.2#44 | 154.0#55 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 191.4#31 | 219.6#70 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.93#58 | 1.00#71 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#39 | 1.38#30 |
| Sacks per game | 2.79#11 | 2.23#53 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#83 | 1.85#82 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#112 | +0.00#89 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#37 | -0.03#44 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#103 | 42.3%#73 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6%#45 | 40.5%#55 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1%#79 | 11.3%#104 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9%#19 | 13.3%#104 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#56 | 13.4%#49 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6%#90 | 13.4%#106 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.84#85 | 3.75#92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.42#20 | 3.42#21 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#29 | own 30#73 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#57 | own 30#85 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.2#127 | 60.9#123 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#108 | -0.03#100 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#85 | +0.07#53 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#40 | +0.02#86 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07#36 | -0.07#34 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4%#85 | 40.3%#100 |
| Passing success rate | 36.0%#117 | 42.7%#52 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#70 | 18.6%#76 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.7%#86 | 27.2%#109 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3%#68 | 28.5%#53 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.1%#116 | 34.6%#122 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.3%#101 | 42.5%#96 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.1%#81 | 52.3%#114 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.7%#32 | 52.8%#23 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami (OH) schedule · Central Michigan schedule · all Week 8 projections
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