Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami (OH) 29.8, UConn 27.4 at Yager Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Miami (OH) wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 57.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
UConn is 2-1, scoring 39.3 and allowing 21.7 points per game (+17.6 per game). Miami (OH) is 1-2, scoring 30 and allowing 33.7 points per game (-3.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: UConn's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.2 points against an average defense) against Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (98th). Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (84th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense) meets UConn's below-average defense (97th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Miami (OH) puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UConn by 20 and Miami (OH) by 25 about 80% of the time.
Miami (OH) gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami (OH) by about 0.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UConn 21, Miami (OH) 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.6 points and the total by 12.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UConn / Miami (OH)) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami (OH) -3.75 → Miami (OH) -2.5 | 50.75 → 52.25 | +142 / -167.5 |
| DraftKings | Miami (OH) -3 → Miami (OH) -2.5 | 50.5 → 52.5 | +114 / -135 |
| Bovada | Miami (OH) -4.5 → Miami (OH) -2.5 | 51 → 52 | +170 / -200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Miami (OH) win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami (OH) -2.5 | 57.1 | 56% |
| Market consensus | Miami (OH) -2.5 | 52.3 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Miami (OH) -2.5 | 53.1 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Miami (OH) win probability
- model 56% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Miami (OH) -2.4 · market Miami (OH) -2.5 · difference -0.1 pts (Miami (OH) view)
- Total
- model 57.1 · market 52.25 · difference +4.9
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UConn 27.4, Miami (OH) 29.8 | Miami (OH) 56%right winner | 0.6 | 12.1 |
| New formula | UConn 27.9, Miami (OH) 30.2 | Miami (OH) 56%right winner | 0.7 | 13.0 |
Final: UConn 21, Miami (OH) 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UConn vs Miami (OH): stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UConn | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.3#35 | 30.0#78 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.7#66 | 33.7#121 |
| Yards per play | 6.90#39 | 7.15#24 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.97#45 | 6.56#118 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.7#39 | 111.3#131 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.3#62 | 282.0#33 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 104.7#26 | 123.0#50 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 271.3#125 | 303.3#132 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#85 | 1.00#98 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#93 | 0.33#127 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#100 | 1.67#89 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#116 | 1.67#89 |
| Stat | UConn | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#39 | +0.22#23 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#26 | +0.16#120 |
| Success rate | 45.0%#49 | 44.6%#57 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.0%#44 | 43.3%#103 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6%#21 | 18.8%#3 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.8%#15 | 9.2%#22 |
| Havoc rate | 16.2%#38 | 12.6%#102 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7%#28 | 12.2%#55 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.59#2 | 4.63#38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.44#42 | 4.46#109 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#42 | own 29#97 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#51 | own 29#74 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7#82 | 55.0#132 |
| Stat | UConn | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#38 | -0.04#115 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#51 | +0.42#10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#38 | +0.07#101 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07#35 | +0.21#113 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7%#67 | 38.8%#107 |
| Passing success rate | 45.6%#54 | 50.0%#33 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#35 | 17.4%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.4%#28 | 28.7%#96 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.1%#40 | 30.2%#80 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.9%#52 | 42.4%#73 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4%#89 | 45.7%#114 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 95.2%#1 | 65.5%#70 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#85 | 78.3%#121 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UConn schedule · Miami (OH) schedule · all Week 4 projections
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