Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami (OH) 28.4, Massachusetts 23.7 at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Miami (OH) wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 52 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Miami (OH) is 2-3, scoring 26.8 and allowing 29.2 points per game (-2.4 per game). Massachusetts is 4-1, scoring 31.8 and allowing 17.8 points per game (+14 per game).
Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (105th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Massachusetts's struggling defense (123rd); that mismatch is where most of Miami (OH)'s projected points come from. Expect Massachusetts to find it hard going: Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (103rd) outranks Massachusetts's struggling offense (125th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami (OH) by 27 and Massachusetts by 18 about 80% of the time.
Massachusetts gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Miami (OH) is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Miami (OH) 20, Massachusetts 19. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.7 points and the total by 13.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Miami (OH) / Massachusetts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami (OH) -2.5 → Miami (OH) -6 | 47.25 → 44.5 | -180 / +150 |
| Bovada | Miami (OH) -2.5 → Miami (OH) -6 | 48 → 44.5 | -135 / +115 |
| DraftKings | Miami (OH) -2.5 → Miami (OH) -6 | 46.5 → 44.5 | -225 / +185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Massachusetts win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami (OH) -4.5 | 52.0 | 38% |
| Market consensus | Miami (OH) -6 | 44.5 | 39% |
| Blended projection | Miami (OH) -6 | 46.2 | 35% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Massachusetts win probability
- model 38% · market (no-vig) 39% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Miami (OH) -4.7 · market Miami (OH) -6 · difference +1.3 pts (Massachusetts view)
- Total
- model 52.0 · market 44.5 · difference +7.5
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Massachusetts than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Miami (OH) 28.4, Massachusetts 23.7 | Miami (OH) 62%right winner | 3.7 | 13.0 |
| New formula | Miami (OH) 27.4, Massachusetts 24.1 | Miami (OH) 59%right winner | 2.3 | 12.5 |
Final: Miami (OH) 20, Massachusetts 19. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Miami (OH) vs Massachusetts: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.8#85 | 31.8#65 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.2#114 | 17.8#33 |
| Yards per play | 6.67#42 | 6.63#46 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.44#119 | 4.89#26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.4#132 | 181.4#60 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.6#38 | 168.8#119 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 118.2#28 | 109.8#20 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 286.2#134 | 212.2#78 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60#56 | 0.40#32 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60#111 | 1.80#9 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60#96 | 2.20#57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.40#105 | 0.80#17 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#31 | +0.12#60 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14#113 | -0.04#30 |
| Success rate | 41.8%#90 | 44.2%#58 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#112 | 40.6%#70 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.3%#14 | 12.7%#73 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.5%#16 | 10.3%#33 |
| Havoc rate | 11.7%#118 | 14.3%#65 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#69 | 11.9%#45 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.08#74 | 4.10#72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08#86 | 3.89#76 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#60 | own 36#8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#25 | own 26#29 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.0#130 | 52.8#138 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08#129 | +0.09#74 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.41#9 | +0.15#52 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#88 | +0.03#70 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18#109 | -0.13#20 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.8%#122 | 47.3%#50 |
| Passing success rate | 46.7%#37 | 46.0%#44 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#80 | 16.7%#67 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.5%#80 | 34.9%#42 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.4%#109 | 29.4%#74 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.6%#91 | 41.2%#74 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.6%#125 | 39.4%#85 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.1%#109 | 64.2%#73 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.8%#123 | 60.7%#80 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami (OH) schedule · Massachusetts schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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