Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ohio 26, Miami (OH) 23 at Yager Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Ohio wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 49.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Ohio is 6-2 against the 128th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.6 and allowing 21.9 points per game (+7.7 per game). Miami (OH) is 5-3 against the 121st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 25.8 points per game (+1.2 per game).
Ohio's below-average offense (89th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) meets Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (92nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio puts up. Expect Miami (OH) to find it hard going: Ohio's middle-of-the-pack defense (72nd) outranks Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (103rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio by 25 and Miami (OH) by 20 about 80% of the time.
Miami (OH) gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ohio is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Ohio vs Miami (OH): stat comparison
| Stat | Ohio | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.6#65 | 27.0#80 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.9#53 | 25.8#88 |
| Yards per play | 6.06#62 | 6.51#33 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.42#57 | 5.94#90 |
| Rushing yards per game | 203.1#29 | 157.1#88 |
| Net passing yards per game | 171.6#121 | 218.8#77 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.6#65 | 108.0#11 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 180.4#28 | 267.6#131 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63#42 | 0.75#55 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#107 | 0.88#65 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#76 | 2.00#75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#66 | 2.50#115 |
| Stat | Ohio | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#46 | +0.10#60 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#51 | +0.06#78 |
| Success rate | 46.1%#39 | 40.5%#104 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9%#55 | 40.7%#68 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#63 | 14.7%#27 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#53 | 9.4%#14 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#37 | 13.3%#88 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#17 | 14.1%#96 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18#59 | 3.97#84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81#69 | 3.95#86 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#62 | own 32#26 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#85 | own 26#19 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.9#110 | 57.8#135 |
| Stat | Ohio | Miami (OH) |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#33 | +0.06#80 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#64 | +0.13#55 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#43 | -0.04#34 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#75 | +0.14#98 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.6%#15 | 42.0%#91 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0%#45 | 39.9%#91 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.5%#28 | 18.3%#88 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.3%#56 | 30.4%#80 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8%#86 | 32.9%#110 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 53.0%#11 | 37.0%#100 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#71 | 42.9%#110 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.6%#14 | 55.2%#105 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.4%#39 | 62.9%#88 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio schedule · Miami (OH) schedule · all Week 11 projections
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