Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami (OH) 32.5, Akron 20 at Yager Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Miami (OH) wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.5 points and 52.4 combined points.
Akron is 1-5, scoring 19.7 and allowing 32.2 points per game (-12.5 per game). Miami (OH) is 3-3, scoring 25.7 and allowing 27.5 points per game (-1.8 per game).
Expect Akron to find it hard going: Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (92nd) outranks Akron's struggling offense (128th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.5 points against an average defense). Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (103rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Akron's struggling defense (132nd); that mismatch is where most of Miami (OH)'s projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Akron by 10 and Miami (OH) by 35 about 80% of the time.
Miami (OH) gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami (OH) by about 10.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Akron 14, Miami (OH) 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 4.4.
More: Akron schedule · Miami (OH) schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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