Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona 32.6, Cincinnati 23.1 at Casino Del Sol Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Arizona wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.5 points and 55.7 combined points.
Cincinnati is 4-0, scoring 40.5 and allowing 20.5 points per game (+20 per game). Arizona is 3-1, scoring 32 and allowing 19 points per game (+13 per game).
Expect Cincinnati to find it hard going: Arizona's strong defense (32nd) outranks Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack offense (51st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense). Arizona's strong offense (34th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (72nd); that mismatch is where most of Arizona's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cincinnati by 13 and Arizona by 32 about 80% of the time.
Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona by about 7.4. The game is on Fox.
Result: Cincinnati 7, Arizona 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 17.5 points and the total by 14.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Cincinnati / Arizona) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona -7.75 → Arizona -6.75 | 54.75 → 56 | +227.5 / -277.5 |
| Bovada | Arizona -7 → Arizona -6.5 | 55 → 55.5 | +240 / -290 |
| DraftKings | Arizona -8.5 → Arizona -7 | 54.5 → 56.5 | +215 / -265 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arizona win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona -9.5 | 55.7 | 73% |
| Market consensus | Arizona -7 | 56.0 | 71% |
| Blended projection | Arizona -7 | 56.3 | 69% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arizona win probability
- model 73% · market (no-vig) 71% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona -9.5 · market Arizona -6.75 · difference +2.8 pts (Arizona view)
- Total
- model 55.7 · market 56 · difference -0.3
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Arizona than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Cincinnati 23.1, Arizona 32.6 | Arizona 73%right winner | 17.5 | 14.7 |
| New formula | Cincinnati 23.2, Arizona 32.9 | Arizona 74%right winner | 17.3 | 15.2 |
Final: Cincinnati 7, Arizona 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Cincinnati vs Arizona: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Cincinnati | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.5#20 | 32.0#63 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5#48 | 19.0#40 |
| Yards per play | 7.22#17 | 6.83#34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.81#86 | 4.96#39 |
| Rushing yards per game | 275.5#7 | 151.0#101 |
| Net passing yards per game | 201.0#97 | 310.3#14 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 122.8#38 | 98.5#15 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 258.0#121 | 204.0#71 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#9 | 1.25#97 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#19 | 0.75#82 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#73 | 2.75#25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#40 | 3.00#126 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21#22 | +0.20#23 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#98 | -0.01#54 |
| Success rate | 45.5%#48 | 49.9%#18 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5%#100 | 36.0%#25 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#53 | 15.0%#28 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#97 | 10.2%#39 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8%#112 | 15.4%#45 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#25 | 12.7%#64 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.65#35 | 4.64#37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05#87 | 2.97#15 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#35 | own 29#90 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#10 | own 28#52 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#67 | 67.5#55 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.22#10 | +0.12#54 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#42 | +0.27#32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17#126 | -0.08#25 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#75 | +0.03#72 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.0%#59 | 49.5%#29 |
| Passing success rate | 53.1%#16 | 51.1%#19 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.8%#42 | 12.3%#18 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2%#73 | 41.8%#6 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.7%#110 | 30.1%#80 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.9%#32 | 61.5%#5 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.6%#80 | 34.5%#44 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 77.7%#14 | 77.1%#16 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.3%#53 | 55.9%#60 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cincinnati schedule · Arizona schedule · all Week 5 projections
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