Matchup analysis
Our model projects Houston 33, Cincinnati 24 at TDECU Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Houston wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 57.4 combined points.
Cincinnati is 5-2 against the 41st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.4 and allowing 26.4 points per game (+9 per game). Houston (No. 18) is 6-2 against the 36th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 21 points per game (+15 per game).
Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.8 points against an average defense) meets Houston's strong defense (31st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cincinnati puts up. Houston's strong offense (27th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th); that mismatch is where most of Houston's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cincinnati by 13 and Houston by 32 about 80% of the time.
Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Houston by about 7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Cincinnati vs Houston: stat comparison
| Stat | Cincinnati | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.4#31 | 36.0#25 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4#95 | 21.0#45 |
| Yards per play | 7.09#10 | 6.80#19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02#95 | 6.10#99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.0#7 | 209.6#25 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.9#75 | 266.6#29 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.6#64 | 114.4#16 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 275.6#133 | 248.8#119 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#16 | 0.63#40 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#20 | 1.38#19 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#38 | 1.75#89 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#68 | 1.25#28 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#10 | +0.20#18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15#119 | +0.13#114 |
| Success rate | 46.7%#34 | 51.7%#3 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1%#104 | 43.9%#102 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.6%#28 | 12.5%#70 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#125 | 13.4%#104 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#83 | 17.7%#9 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6%#8 | 10.8%#21 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.96#12 | 4.46#37 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.30#108 | 4.64#124 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#50 | own 33#14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#3 | own 24#1 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.4#72 | 70.0#23 |
| Stat | Cincinnati | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#8 | +0.10#56 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24#23 | +0.33#10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#123 | +0.09#98 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#101 | +0.15#102 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.3%#72 | 49.8%#14 |
| Passing success rate | 49.5%#17 | 53.9%#5 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.9%#31 | 12.6%#10 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.1%#20 | 45.5%#2 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1%#111 | 32.1%#105 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.7%#24 | 61.0%#1 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1%#95 | 38.5%#67 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 83.3%#3 | 69.0%#38 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.2%#47 | 72.7%#127 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cincinnati schedule · Houston schedule · all Week 10 projections
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