Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas Tech 36.1, Cincinnati 22.6 at Nippert Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Texas Tech wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.5 points and 58.7 combined points.
Texas Tech (No. 8) is 6-0, scoring 37.8 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+20.1 per game). Cincinnati is 4-2, scoring 35.2 and allowing 26.8 points per game (+8.4 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Texas Tech's strong offense (14th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.6 points against an average defense) against Cincinnati's middle-of-the-pack defense (66th). Texas Tech's strong defense (24th) should limit Cincinnati's strong offense (41st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Tech by 36 and Cincinnati by 9 about 80% of the time.
Cincinnati gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Texas Tech is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Result: Texas Tech 24, Cincinnati 37. Cincinnati won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 26.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas Tech / Cincinnati) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas Tech -10.5 | 57.5 | -440 / +330 |
| Opening line | Texas Tech -11.5 | 53.5 | -465 / +350 |
| DraftKings | Texas Tech -10.5 | 58.5 | -440 / +340 |
| FanDuel | Texas Tech -10.5 | 57.5 | -420 / +320 |
| BetRivers | Texas Tech -10 | 58 | -400 / +300 |
| BetMGM | Texas Tech -11 | 58.5 | -450 / +333 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 4:43 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Cincinnati win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas Tech -13.5 | 58.7 | 19% |
| Market consensus | Texas Tech -10.5 | 57.5 | 22% |
| Blended projection | Texas Tech -11 | 57.8 | 23% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Cincinnati win probability
- model 19% · market (no-vig) 22% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Texas Tech -13.5 · market Texas Tech -10.5 · difference -3.0 pts (Cincinnati view)
- Total
- model 58.7 · market 57.5 · difference +1.2
Model margin is 3.0 pts more toward Texas Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas Tech 36.1, Cincinnati 22.6 | Texas Tech 81%wrong winner | 26.5 | 2.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Texas Tech 24, Cincinnati 37. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas Tech vs Cincinnati: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Texas Tech | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.4#7 | 30.3#43 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.8#3 | 25.6#74 |
| Yards per play | 6.15#44 | 7.06#10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.44#3 | 5.77#64 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.3#36 | 180.2#55 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.1#33 | 234.7#57 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 99.8#4 | 188.8#107 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 189.2#28 | 218.1#68 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#87 | 0.69#11 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#4 | 0.54#129 |
| Sacks per game | 2.71#13 | 1.62#98 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.79#72 | 0.62#2 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#72 | +0.20#4 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.32#1 | +0.09#117 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#65 | 46.8%#20 |
| Success rate allowed | 29.1%#1 | 44.9%#111 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#22 | 15.3%#10 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.0%#1 | 11.5%#47 |
| Havoc rate | 17.6%#1 | 9.7%#128 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#37 | 9.4%#8 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.27#37 | 4.77#10 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.84#3 | 3.99#85 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#1 | own 29#89 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#30 | own 27#19 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.1#8 | 58.8#132 |
| Stat | Texas Tech | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#58 | +0.15#11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#81 | +0.25#6 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.27#1 | +0.06#104 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.36#1 | +0.14#112 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8%#74 | 48.3%#16 |
| Passing success rate | 42.3%#55 | 45.3%#28 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.8%#108 | 15.3%#24 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9%#48 | 32.7%#39 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.6%#2 | 32.2%#102 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.6%#7 | 39.3%#89 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.6%#7 | 41.3%#78 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.6%#103 | 75.0%#6 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#69 | 54.3%#29 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Tech schedule · Cincinnati schedule · all Week 8 projections
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