Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia Tech 32.6, Colorado 22.7 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Georgia Tech wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 55.3 combined points.
Colorado has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Georgia Tech has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Colorado's below-average offense (99th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) meets Georgia Tech's below-average defense (89th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colorado puts up. Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (66th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense) meets Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Georgia Tech puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado by 13 and Georgia Tech by 32 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Georgia Tech by about 7.8. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Colorado 14, Georgia Tech 13. Colorado won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 10.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colorado / Georgia Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Georgia Tech -7 → Georgia Tech -6.5 | 51.5 → 53 | +217.5 / -264 |
| Bovada | Georgia Tech -7 → Georgia Tech -6.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | +240 / -290 |
| DraftKings | Georgia Tech -7 → Georgia Tech -6.5 | 53.5 | +195 / -238 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia Tech -10 | 55.3 | 74% |
| Market consensus | Georgia Tech -6.5 | 53.0 | 70% |
| Blended projection | Georgia Tech -7 | 53.7 | 69% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia Tech win probability
- model 74% · market (no-vig) 70% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia Tech -9.9 · market Georgia Tech -6.5 · difference +3.4 pts (Georgia Tech view)
- Total
- model 55.3 · market 53 · difference +2.3
Model margin is 3.4 pts more toward Georgia Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Colorado 22.7, Georgia Tech 32.6 | Georgia Tech 74%wrong winner | 10.9 | 28.3 |
| New formula | Colorado 18.7, Georgia Tech 36.5 | Georgia Tech 85%wrong winner | 18.8 | 28.2 |
Final: Colorado 14, Georgia Tech 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Colorado vs Georgia Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Colorado | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.9#116 | 32.2#27 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5#112 | 25.0#70 |
| Yards per play | 5.23#118 | 7.16#7 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.29#113 | 6.10#100 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.8#93 | 194.2#32 |
| Net passing yards per game | 192.9#99 | 272.8#21 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 222.5#132 | 165.7#76 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.1#50 | 226.3#88 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#92 | 1.08#83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08#64 | 0.38#136 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#122 | 1.85#83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.33#130 | 0.77#6 |
| Stat | Colorado | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#94 | +0.15#18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#83 | +0.08#112 |
| Success rate | 34.7%#133 | 50.1%#6 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#88 | 43.7%#95 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0%#111 | 15.3%#11 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7%#126 | 13.2%#100 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#87 | 10.2%#124 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9%#122 | 8.5%#3 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.12#47 | 4.49#21 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08#94 | 4.30#113 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#86 | own 29#98 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#109 | own 28#26 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.2#82 | 65.2#83 |
| Stat | Colorado | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#79 | +0.09#29 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#96 | +0.21#12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#65 | +0.05#98 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#98 | +0.12#109 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.1%#132 | 51.7%#5 |
| Passing success rate | 34.4%#126 | 48.4%#12 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.4%#124 | 15.6%#27 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.6%#81 | 37.8%#11 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2%#66 | 27.6%#35 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.6%#104 | 48.7%#14 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.9%#36 | 40.6%#72 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#59 | 58.5%#87 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.9%#107 | 57.4%#50 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado schedule · Georgia Tech schedule · all Week 1 projections
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