Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arizona State 29, Colorado 23 at Mountain America Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Arizona State wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 52.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Colorado is 2-5 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 30.1 points per game (-10 per game). Arizona State is 4-3 against the 37th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.9 and allowing 29.9 points per game (+1 per game).
Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th) should limit Colorado's below-average offense (98th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.4 points against an average defense). Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack offense (64th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) meets Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arizona State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado by 16 and Arizona State by 29 about 80% of the time.
Arizona State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona State by about 4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Colorado vs Arizona State: stat comparison
| Stat | Colorado | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.1#121 | 30.9#56 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1#112 | 29.9#110 |
| Yards per play | 6.04#64 | 6.37#44 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63#71 | 5.46#58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.6#103 | 164.6#75 |
| Net passing yards per game | 267.6#26 | 268.3#24 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.7#66 | 158.0#74 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.9#121 | 204.6#63 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.57#134 | 1.00#81 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#75 | 0.43#125 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#52 | 2.00#68 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#94 | 2.71#119 |
| Stat | Colorado | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#103 | +0.01#111 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#59 | +0.03#65 |
| Success rate | 40.6%#102 | 42.0%#80 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#61 | 39.8%#52 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#37 | 15.3%#19 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#114 | 11.1%#55 |
| Havoc rate | 18.0%#8 | 14.7%#54 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#68 | 16.8%#132 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.41#117 | 4.18#55 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.65#52 | 3.56#44 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#132 | own 29#79 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#133 | own 33#131 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#45 | 68.0#46 |
| Stat | Colorado | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#120 | -0.01#115 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#75 | +0.03#94 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#14 | +0.05#78 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#93 | +0.02#56 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.5%#101 | 41.1%#98 |
| Passing success rate | 40.8%#79 | 42.8%#60 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#45 | 18.7%#93 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.4%#52 | 33.9%#39 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.3%#115 | 27.5%#42 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.8%#86 | 31.2%#132 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.2%#97 | 37.0%#51 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.0%#108 | 65.2%#54 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.1%#10 | 53.8%#42 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado schedule · Arizona State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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