Matchup analysis
Our model projects Houston 32, Colorado 20 at Folsom Field in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Houston wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.3 points and 52.5 combined points.
Houston (No. 18) is 6-2 against the 36th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36 and allowing 21 points per game (+15 per game). Colorado is 2-5 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 30.1 points per game (-10 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Houston's strong offense (27th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.3 points against an average defense) against Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th). Houston's strong defense (31st) should limit Colorado's below-average offense (99th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston by 35 and Colorado by 10 about 80% of the time.
Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Houston is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Houston vs Colorado: stat comparison
| Stat | Houston | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.0#25 | 20.1#121 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0#45 | 30.1#112 |
| Yards per play | 6.80#19 | 6.04#64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#99 | 5.63#71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 209.6#25 | 144.6#103 |
| Net passing yards per game | 266.6#29 | 267.6#26 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 114.4#16 | 150.7#66 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.8#119 | 249.9#121 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63#40 | 1.57#134 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.38#19 | 0.86#75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#89 | 2.29#52 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#28 | 2.14#94 |
| Stat | Houston | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#18 | +0.02#103 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#114 | +0.02#59 |
| Success rate | 51.7%#3 | 40.6%#102 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9%#102 | 40.1%#61 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#70 | 13.9%#37 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4%#104 | 13.9%#114 |
| Havoc rate | 17.7%#9 | 18.0%#8 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#21 | 13.2%#68 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.46#37 | 3.41#117 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.64#124 | 3.65#52 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#14 | own 26#132 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#1 | own 33#133 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.0#23 | 68.3#45 |
| Stat | Houston | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#56 | -0.04#120 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33#10 | +0.07#75 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#98 | -0.09#14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#102 | +0.12#93 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.8%#14 | 40.5%#101 |
| Passing success rate | 53.9%#5 | 40.8%#79 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.6%#10 | 15.8%#45 |
| Passing-down success rate | 45.5%#2 | 32.4%#52 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1%#105 | 33.3%#115 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 61.0%#1 | 39.8%#86 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#67 | 41.2%#97 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.0%#38 | 55.0%#108 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.7%#127 | 42.1%#10 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston schedule · Colorado schedule · all Week 11 projections
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