Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oklahoma State 28.2, Colorado 22.8 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Oklahoma State wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 51 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Colorado is 2-4, scoring 19.5 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-6.2 per game). Oklahoma State is 4-2, scoring 37.2 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+13.5 per game).
Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th) should limit Colorado's below-average offense (99th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Oklahoma State's strong offense (37th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense) against Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado by 17 and Oklahoma State by 28 about 80% of the time.
Oklahoma State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oklahoma State by about 3.3. The game is on FS1.
Result: Colorado 24, Oklahoma State 57. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 27.6 points and the total by 30.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colorado / Oklahoma State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oklahoma State -13.5 | 55.5 | +425 / -575 |
| Opening line | Oklahoma State -15.5 | 54.5 | +500 / -720 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma State -12.5 | 55.5 | +410 / -550 |
| FanDuel | Oklahoma State -13.5 | 54.5 | +430 / -600 |
| BetRivers | Oklahoma State -12.5 | 54.5 | +410 / -590 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oklahoma State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oklahoma State -5.5 | 51.0 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma State -13.5 | 55.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma State -12 | 55.6 | 80% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oklahoma State win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference -18 pts
- Margin
- model Oklahoma State -5.4 · market Oklahoma State -13.5 · difference -8.1 pts (Oklahoma State view)
- Total
- model 51.0 · market 55.5 · difference -4.5
Model margin is 8.1 pts more toward Colorado than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Colorado 22.8, Oklahoma State 28.2 | Oklahoma State 64%right winner | 27.6 | 30.0 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Colorado 24, Oklahoma State 57. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Colorado vs Oklahoma State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Colorado | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.9#116 | 14.2#134 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5#112 | 33.3#126 |
| Yards per play | 5.23#118 | 4.81#132 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.29#113 | 6.44#124 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.8#93 | 133.6#115 |
| Net passing yards per game | 192.9#99 | 176.8#115 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 222.5#132 | 173.6#86 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.1#50 | 250.8#120 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#92 | 1.25#99 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08#64 | 0.75#110 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#122 | 1.83#86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.33#130 | 1.83#76 |
| Stat | Colorado | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#94 | -0.16#134 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#83 | +0.12#125 |
| Success rate | 34.7%#133 | 35.2%#132 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#88 | 44.9%#113 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0%#111 | 9.3%#131 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7%#126 | 15.5%#132 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#87 | 13.8%#33 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9%#122 | 15.6%#128 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.12#47 | 2.98#131 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.08#94 | 4.23#107 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#86 | own 26#133 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#109 | own 31#104 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.2#82 | 64.5#94 |
| Stat | Colorado | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#79 | -0.12#132 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#96 | -0.20#132 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#65 | +0.04#91 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#98 | +0.21#127 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.1%#132 | 36.5%#127 |
| Passing success rate | 34.4%#126 | 34.1%#128 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.4%#124 | 18.5%#73 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.6%#81 | 23.3%#133 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2%#66 | 31.6%#95 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.6%#104 | 35.7%#112 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.9%#36 | 43.6%#102 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#59 | 54.5%#105 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.9%#107 | 75.0%#129 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado schedule · Oklahoma State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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