Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Baylor 30.9, Colorado 22 at McLane Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Baylor wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.9 points and 52.9 combined points.
Colorado is 2-1, scoring 24.3 and allowing 25 points per game (-0.7 per game). Baylor is 2-1, scoring 32 and allowing 13 points per game (+19 per game).
Expect Colorado to find it hard going: Baylor's middle-of-the-pack defense (57th) outranks Colorado's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense). Baylor's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th); that mismatch is where most of Baylor's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado by 14 and Baylor by 31 about 80% of the time.
Baylor gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Baylor by about 6.8. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Colorado 13, Baylor 23. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.1 points and the total by 16.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colorado / Baylor) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Baylor -9.25 → Baylor -8.5 | 54.25 | +302.5 / -395 |
| Bovada | Baylor -10 → Baylor -8.5 | 55 → 54 | +305 / -410 |
| DraftKings | Baylor -8.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | +300 / -380 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Baylor win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Baylor -9 | 52.9 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Baylor -8.5 | 54.3 | 76% |
| Blended projection | Baylor -8.5 | 54.6 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Baylor win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Baylor -8.9 · market Baylor -8.5 · difference +0.4 pts (Baylor view)
- Total
- model 52.9 · market 54.25 · difference -1.4
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Colorado 22.0, Baylor 30.9 | Baylor 72%right winner | 1.1 | 16.9 |
| New formula | Colorado 22.0, Baylor 30.9 | Baylor 72%right winner | 1.1 | 16.9 |
Final: Colorado 13, Baylor 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Colorado vs Baylor: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Colorado | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.3#105 | 32.0#69 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0#90 | 13.0#22 |
| Yards per play | 6.21#74 | 5.82#100 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.21#61 | 4.04#11 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.7#46 | 186.3#55 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.7#75 | 291.0#27 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.7#57 | 111.7#33 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.7#95 | 164.3#37 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#91 | 2.00#133 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#71 | 2.00#9 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33#44 | 3.67#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#85 | 1.67#84 |
| Stat | Colorado | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#54 | +0.05#92 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#83 | -0.14#10 |
| Success rate | 43.2%#74 | 42.6%#85 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2%#69 | 32.1%#8 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5%#40 | 11.4%#106 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0%#79 | 9.6%#28 |
| Havoc rate | 15.3%#48 | 19.3%#9 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#26 | 13.4%#78 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.78#136 | 3.38#125 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66#57 | 2.79#8 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#96 | own 34#29 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#92 | own 33#119 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#51 | 82.0#2 |
| Stat | Colorado | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#49 | -0.01#106 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#63 | +0.10#75 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.16#11 | -0.12#19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25#117 | -0.16#17 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.3%#60 | 44.8%#76 |
| Passing success rate | 39.5%#96 | 40.6%#92 |
| Run stuff rate | 9.8%#6 | 13.1%#21 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.1%#59 | 36.5%#37 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.4%#117 | 23.9%#28 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.5%#71 | 41.7%#78 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#100 | 42.0%#94 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6%#101 | 50.0%#121 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.4%#49 | 50.0%#45 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado schedule · Baylor schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.