Matchup analysis
Our model projects Kansas State 30, Colorado 24 at Folsom Field in Week 9. That is a lean: Kansas State wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 53.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Kansas State is 4-3 against the 83rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+11.8 per game). Colorado is 2-5 against the 21st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 30.1 points per game (-10 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) against Colorado's middle-of-the-pack defense (79th). Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th) should limit Colorado's below-average offense (99th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas State by 29 and Colorado by 16 about 80% of the time.
Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Kansas State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on TNT.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kansas State / Colorado) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas State -2.5 | 47.5 | -135 / +114 |
| FanDuel | Kansas State -2.5 | 47.5 | -137 / +114 |
| theScore Bet | Kansas State -2.5 | 47.5 | -135 / +115 |
| BetRivers | Kansas State -2.5 | 48.5 | -148 / +118 |
| DraftKings | Kansas State -2.5 | 47.5 | -135 / +114 |
| BetMGM | Kansas State -2.5 | 47.5 | -135 / +110 |
| Pinnacle | Kansas State -2.5 | 47 | -124 / +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Kansas State -2.5 | 47.5 | -145 / +120 |
| Bovada | Kansas State -2 | 47 | -125 / +105 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colorado win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas State -6 | 53.4 | 34% |
| Market consensus | Kansas State -2.5 | 47.5 | 45% |
| Blended projection | Kansas State -3 | 48.8 | 42% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colorado win probability
- model 34% · market (no-vig) 45% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Kansas State -6.1 · market Kansas State -2.5 · difference -3.6 pts (Colorado view)
- Total
- model 53.4 · market 47.5 · difference +5.9
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Colorado 53%.
Model margin is 3.6 pts more toward Kansas State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kansas State vs Colorado: stat comparison
| Stat | Kansas State | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9#43 | 20.1#121 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1#47 | 30.1#112 |
| Yards per play | 6.35#47 | 6.04#64 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.20#38 | 5.63#71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 222.3#16 | 144.6#103 |
| Net passing yards per game | 226.9#66 | 267.6#26 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 174.1#96 | 150.7#66 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 134.3#3 | 249.9#121 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#45 | 1.57#134 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.29#134 | 0.86#75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#37 | 2.29#52 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#9 | 2.14#94 |
| Stat | Kansas State | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#43 | +0.02#103 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#53 | +0.02#59 |
| Success rate | 44.8%#48 | 40.6%#102 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.2%#26 | 40.1%#61 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6%#97 | 13.9%#37 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9%#112 | 13.9%#114 |
| Havoc rate | 16.5%#17 | 18.0%#8 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#30 | 13.2%#68 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33#48 | 3.41#117 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.42#114 | 3.65#52 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#73 | own 26#132 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#29 | own 33#133 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.7#16 | 68.3#45 |
| Stat | Kansas State | Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.17#22 | -0.04#120 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#60 | +0.07#75 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#49 | -0.09#14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#72 | +0.12#93 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.6%#24 | 40.5%#101 |
| Passing success rate | 41.4%#72 | 40.8%#79 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#48 | 15.8%#45 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2%#32 | 32.4%#52 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9%#87 | 33.3%#115 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 54.5%#8 | 39.8%#86 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.0%#27 | 41.2%#97 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.3%#77 | 55.0%#108 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.9%#117 | 42.1%#10 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kansas State schedule · Colorado schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.